TACTICAL
The Lightning own the underlying play
The Lightning own the underlying play — 51.7% 5v5 xG vs 30.8%.
Preview · PHI at TBL
The Lightning are the model's lean over the Flyers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanMon, Oct 5
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 5, 9:22 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a PHI 2.9 - 3.4 TBL game with the Lightning at 58% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Lightning own the underlying play . The Lightning own the underlying play — 51.7% 5v5 xG vs 30.8%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 52.1% . The Lightning drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Lightning. The Lightning's PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | PHI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 30.8% | 51.7% |
| Corsi% | 33.7% | 52.1% |
| PDO | 0.992 | 0.962 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 51.7% 5v5 xG vs 30.8%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Lightning's PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Woll (+2.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 92.9% SV) vs A. Vasilevskiy (+1.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 88.9% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
TBL
- Most goals from slot (3G on 21 shots, 14%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TBL 58%
58%
TBL
Model favorite
42%
58%
PHI50TBL
TBL by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score PHI 2.9–3.4 TBL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
PHI← edge
edge →TBL
30.8%51.7%
33.7%52.1%
1.973.42
4.443.20
1.332.00
4.333.00
0.9920.962
TBL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 0.962) says PHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2–3
PHI
0-1-2
-9 GD · 1d rest
TBL
1-1-0
-2 GD · 1d rest
0.992
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.962
TBL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Lightning drive Corsi at 52.1%
The Lightning drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGTBL
Regression watch: Lightning
The Lightning's PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALTBL
Hot Zone: Lightning
Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Most goals from slot (3G on 21 shots, 14%) — deny that lane
Where the edges live
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 51.7% 5v5 xG vs 30.8%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Lightning's PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 51.7% 5v5 xG vs 30.8%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Woll (+2.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 92.9% SV) vs A. Vasilevskiy (+1.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 88.9% SV).
- The Lightning's PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
PHI
vs CAR · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
J. Woll
1 day rest.925 last start62:48 played
Backup Dan Vladar · -3.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Konecny16:08
- S. Couturier15:58
- A. Bump13:27
- C. Dvorak14:29
- N. Cates09:13
- M. Michkov16:08
- T. Zegras22:53
- N. Acciari15:53
- T. Foerster18:43
- O. Tippett17:47
- C. Grundstrom13:45
- P. Martone11:02
Defence · 6
- D.Jiricek13:10
- T. Sanheim27:05
- C. York22:10
- J. Drysdale24:33
- N. Seeler18:07
- R. Ristolainen14:26
TBL
vs WSH · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
A. Vasilevskiy
1 day rest.952 last start60:00 played
Forwards · 11
- B. Point20:32
- J. Viel07:34
- Z. Girgensons14:27
- P. Holmberg15:25
- B. Hagel22:07
- J. Guentzel18:18
- A. Cirelli17:42
- N. Kucherov22:46
- G. Goncalves15:47
- C. Geekie09:10
- I. Mikheyev13:57
Defence · 7
- R. McDonagh15:52
- C. D'Astous13:47
- J. Carlson20:35
- V. Hedman13:34
- E. Lilleberg10:30
- E. Cernak20:34
- J. Moser19:23
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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