TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 40.3%.
Preview · SJS at DAL
The Stars are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanMon, Oct 5
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 5, 9:22 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a SJS 2.8 - 3.4 DAL game with the Stars at 58% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Stars own the underlying play . The Stars own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 40.3%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 50.6% . The Stars drive Corsi at 50.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie Weakness: Stars. Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | SJS | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 40.3% | 51.8% |
| Corsi% | 42.9% | 50.6% |
| PDO | 1.020 | 0.973 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 40.3%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 50.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Stars' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (-0.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 88.5% SV) vs C. DeSmith (+0.2 GSAx in 1 GP, 92.3% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
SJS
- Most goals from slot (10G on 47 shots, 21%) — deny that lane
DAL
- Their goalie (Casey DeSmith) leaks HD — 50.0% HD SV. Get to the slot.
- Most goals from point (3G on 23 shots, 13%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 59%
59%
DAL
Model favorite
41%
59%
SJS50DAL
DAL by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SJS 2.8–3.4 DAL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →DAL
40.3%51.8%
42.9%50.6%
2.472.61
3.652.43
4.500.50
3.503.00
1.0200.973
DAL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.020 vs 0.973) says SJS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2
SJS
2-0-0
+2 GD · 1d rest
DAL
0-2-0
-5 GD · 1d rest
1.020
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.973
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Stars drive Corsi at 50.6%
The Stars drive Corsi at 50.6% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALDAL
Goalie Weakness: Stars
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Casey DeSmith) leaks HD — 50.0% HD SV. Get to the slot.
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 40.3%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 50.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Stars' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 40.3%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 50.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (-0.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 88.5% SV) vs C. DeSmith (+0.2 GSAx in 1 GP, 92.3% SV).
- The Stars' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs LAK · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
1 day rest.886 last start63:18 played
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith18:41
- A. Wennberg18:43
- B. Goodrow11:55
- M. Marchment16:23
- I. Stenberg15:37
- K. Sherwood11:49
- C. Graf16:43
- Z. Ostapchuk10:14
- M. Celebrini21:42
- T. Toffoli14:31
- M. Misa14:14
- I. Chernyshov16:23
Defence · 6
- N. Allan16:00
- M. Kesselring21:15
- D. Orlov18:12
- D. Nurse21:51
- L. Cagnoni21:21
- J. Trouba20:49
DAL
vs NSH · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
C. DeSmith
1 day rest.923 last start58:24 played
Backup Jake Oettinger · +0.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- O. Bäck09:38
- R. Faksa10:28
- J. Benn13:12
- C. Blackwell07:29
- S. Steel16:09
- J. Robertson18:50
- R. Hintz16:03
- A. Hyry12:29
- J. Hryckowian14:30
- W. Johnston22:50
- T. Seguin12:34
- M. Rantanen23:55
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen24:35
- N. Lundkvist19:01
- L. Bichsel15:12
- E. Lindell19:11
- T. Harley25:57
- T. Myers14:27
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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