TACTICAL
The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 51.0%
The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · NSH at TOR
Predators at Maple Leafs: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Oct 6
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 6, 9:00 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a NSH 3.2 - 3.2 TOR game with the Predators at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 51.0%. The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- Regression watch: Predators. The Predators' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | NSH | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 43.5% | 44.3% |
| Corsi% | 45.3% | 51.0% |
| PDO | 0.958 | 0.958 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Predators' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Saros (+1.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 93.3% SV) vs S. Bobrovsky (+1.9 GSAx in 2 GP, 88.7% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
NSH
- Most goals from slot (3G on 11 shots, 27%) — deny that lane
TOR
- Most goals from slot (5G on 23 shots, 22%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NSH 51%
51%
NSH
Model favorite
51%
49%
NSH50TOR
NSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NSH 3.3–3.2 TOR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NSH← edge
edge →TOR
43.5%44.3%
45.3%51.0%
2.092.97
2.713.73
1.502.00
2.002.33
0.9580.958
TOR holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.958 vs 0.958) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2–3
NSH
1-1-0
-1 GD · 2d rest
TOR
1-2-0
-1 GD · 2d rest
0.958
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.958
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGTOR
Regression watch: Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 49%–51% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Predators' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Saros (+1.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 93.3% SV) vs S. Bobrovsky (+1.9 GSAx in 2 GP, 88.7% SV).
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.958 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NSH
vs DAL · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
J. Saros
2 days rest.967 last start59:57 played
Forwards · 11
- F. Forsberg21:40
- A. Kerfoot16:23
- J. Drury13:38
- N. Hoglander11:37
- M. Bourque18:05
- M. Wood16:06
- R. Colton15:19
- J. Marchessault16:22
- A. Edstrom13:59
- R. O'Reilly19:53
- S. Stamkos20:02
Defence · 7
- A. Wilsby14:33
- N. Hague21:00
- J. Ahcan05:49
- N. Perbix18:39
- R. Josi24:38
- B. Skjei18:05
- W. Trudeau12:15
TOR
vs OTT · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
2 days rest.897 last start58:50 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · +1.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons14:24
- N. Paul17:03
- B. Duhaime09:51
- B. Groulx07:22
- A. Matthews21:50
- E. Cowan12:07
- T. Blueger10:24
- K. Marchenko19:26
- W. Nylander21:25
- J. Tavares18:03
- G. McKenna12:46
- J. Roslovic14:49
Defence · 6
- C. Tanev17:28
- J. McCabe17:45
- T. Stecher18:10
- D. Raddysh22:46
- M. Rielly18:23
- O. Ekman-Larsson17:08
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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