TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.3%.
Preview · CAR at MTL
Hurricanes at Canadiens: too close to call
The model's leanTue, Oct 6
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 6, 9:00 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a CAR 3.4 - 3.2 MTL game with the Hurricanes at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play . The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.3%.
- Regression watch: Canadiens. The Canadiens' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
- Regression watch: Hurricanes. The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.916 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | CAR | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 59.0% | 51.3% |
| Corsi% | 57.0% | 54.9% |
| PDO | 0.916 | 1.015 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.3%.
Regression Watch
- The Canadiens' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.916 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: P. Kochetkov (+0.3 GSAx in 1 GP, 88.9% SV) vs J. Dobes (-2.5 GSAx in 2 GP, 86.2% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
CAR
- Most goals from slot (3G on 8 shots, 38%) — deny that lane
MTL
- Most goals from slot (4G on 14 shots, 29%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 54%
54%
CAR
Model favorite
54%
46%
CAR50MTL
CAR by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CAR 3.4–3.2 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →MTL
59.0%51.3%
57.0%54.9%
3.523.09
2.452.93
1.674.00
2.674.00
0.9161.015
CAR holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.916 vs 1.015) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2–3
CAR
1-1-1
-3 GD · 2d rest
MTL
1-0-1
+0 GD · 2d rest
0.916
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.015
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGMTL
Regression watch: Canadiens
The Canadiens' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCAR
Regression watch: Hurricanes
The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.916 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 46%–54% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.3%.
Regression watch
- The Canadiens' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.916 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.3%.
- Goalie matchup: P. Kochetkov (+0.3 GSAx in 1 GP, 88.9% SV) vs J. Dobes (-2.5 GSAx in 2 GP, 86.2% SV).
- The Canadiens' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CAR
vs PHI · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
2 days rest.889 last start62:51 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -1.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Staal16:35
- S. Aho20:30
- L. Stankoven17:10
- N. Ehlers13:38
- W. Carrier12:49
- A. Svechnikov17:50
- J. Martinook15:16
- E. Robinson11:44
- J. Blake18:43
- T. Hall14:30
- M. Jankowski12:01
- J. Kotkaniemi11:19
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere15:39
- J. Chatfield22:50
- M. Reilly10:36
- K. Miller23:17
- S. Walker24:10
- J. Slavin24:47
MTL
vs PIT · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
J. Dobes
2 days rest.800 last start59:04 played
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield22:50
- N. Suzuki22:43
- A. Newhook15:43
- J. Anderson12:10
- J. Slafkovský18:12
- C. Kreider14:57
- P. Danault11:24
- J. Evans14:36
- Z. Bolduc11:31
- K. Dach11:40
- A. Texier09:14
- I. Demidov16:03
Defence · 6
- M. Matheson26:24
- A. Carrier08:32
- J. Struble16:09
- L. Hutson29:06
- N. Dobson23:04
- A. Xhekaj13:43
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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