WARNINGOTT
L. Ullmark on a back-to-back
L. Ullmark projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · OTT at DET
Senators at Red Wings: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 6
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 6, 9:00 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a OTT 3.2 - 3.1 DET game with the Senators at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- L. Ullmark on a back-to-back. L. Ullmark projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- The Senators own the underlying play . The Senators own the underlying play — 56.3% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.9%. The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | OTT | DET |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 56.3% | 49.7% |
| Corsi% | 46.2% | 56.9% |
| PDO | 1.092 | 1.024 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 56.3% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Red Wings' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.092 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: L. Ullmark (+2.5 GSAx in 2 GP, 94.9% SV) vs J. Gibson (+1.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 91.5% SV).
- L. Ullmark is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
OTT
- Most goals from left-circle (4G on 31 shots, 13%) — deny that lane
DET
- Most goals from slot (5G on 37 shots, 14%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 52%
52%
OTT
Model favorite
52%
48%
OTT50DET
OTT by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score OTT 3.2–3.1 DET; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →DET
56.3%49.7%
46.3%56.9%
3.792.90
2.932.94
3.501.00
1.502.50
1.0921.024
OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.092 vs 1.024) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2
OTT
2-0-0
+4 GD · 0d rest
DET
0-2-0
-3 GD · 1d rest
1.092
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.024
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Senators own the underlying play
The Senators own the underlying play — 56.3% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
TACTICAL
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.9%
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.9% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGDET
Regression watch: Red Wings
The Red Wings' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 56.3% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Red Wings' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.092 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Senators own the underlying play — 56.3% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Ullmark (+2.5 GSAx in 2 GP, 94.9% SV) vs J. Gibson (+1.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 91.5% SV).
- L. Ullmark is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Red Wings' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs BOS · Mon, Oct 5
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
back-to-back1.000 last start40:00 played
L. Ullmark started last game and was relieved by S. Ersson (20:00 of it).
Backup Samuel Ersson · +0.0 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto17:56
- T. Stützle18:56
- D. Batherson15:11
- F. Zetterlund16:42
- N. Cousins10:58
- M. Amadio15:44
- D. Cozens18:38
- W. Eklund17:53
- C. Giroux14:03
- S. Halliday09:39
- W. Foegele12:13
- H. Hodgson05:35
Defence · 6
- C. Crotty10:56
- J. Spence24:49
- C. Yakemchuk14:58
- N. Matinpalo20:15
- T. Kleven23:21
- T. Chabot24:13
DET
vs WPG · Sun, Oct 4
Expected in goal
J. Gibson
1 day rest.889 last start57:11 played
Forwards · 11
- A. Copp23:44
- M. Appleton09:23
- L. Raymond23:55
- M. Rasmussen16:09
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård19:33
- N. Danielson08:09
- V. Arvidsson21:24
- J. Compher12:51
- K. Kolesar10:49
- E. Finnie16:56
- A. DeBrincat23:16
Defence · 7
- B. Chiarot17:23
- A. Johansson12:37
- A. Englund07:15
- A. Johansson13:30
- A. Sandin-Pellikka15:37
- M. Seider25:41
- J. Faulk19:32
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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