TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 65.0%
The Devils drive Corsi at 65.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · UTA at NJD
Mammoth at Devils: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Oct 6
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 6, 9:00 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a UTA 3.2 - 3.3 NJD game with the Devils at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Devils drive Corsi at 65.0% . The Devils drive Corsi at 65.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Devils. The Devils' PDO is 0.913 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- A true toss-up. Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | UTA | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 56.7% | 58.2% |
| Corsi% | 58.2% | 65.0% |
| PDO | 0.997 | 0.913 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Devils drive Corsi at 65.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Devils' PDO is 0.913 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NJD 52%
52%
NJD
Model favorite
48%
52%
UTA50NJD
NJD by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score UTA 3.2–3.3 NJD; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
UTA← edge
edge →NJD
56.7%58.2%
58.2%65.0%
3.693.99
2.822.86
4.001.50
1.674.00
0.9970.913
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.997 vs 0.913) says UTA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
UTA
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
NJD
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.997
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.913
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.913 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Devils drive Corsi at 65.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Devils' PDO is 0.913 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils drive Corsi at 65.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- The Devils' PDO is 0.913 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
UTA
vs NYR · Sun, Oct 4
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
58:40 last game
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz17:18
- C. Keller18:03
- D. Guenther15:45
- V. Trocheck17:58
- J. McBain11:14
- B. Hayton13:18
- D. But10:26
- M. Carcone12:43
- L. Crouse15:20
- A. Lee12:59
- K. Stenlund13:10
- L. Cooley18:28
Defence · 6
- J. Marino21:07
- A. Peeke14:04
- D. Simashev12:45
- M. Weegar22:00
- N. Schmidt22:39
- M. Sergachev23:51
NJD
vs NYI · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
N. Daws
59:52 last game
Forwards · 12
- S. Noesen08:48
- C. Glass11:40
- N. Hischier19:19
- E. Rodrigues16:14
- T. Meier19:57
- A. Mantha15:08
- J. Bratt15:53
- L. Evangelista18:55
- A. Gritsyuk15:22
- J. Hughes21:01
- D. Mercer15:02
- A. Lombardi08:13
Defence · 6
- B. Dillon13:13
- D. Hamilton22:17
- B. Pesce18:52
- L. Hughes21:41
- D. Chisholm12:40
- J. Siegenthaler21:08
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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