TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 60.7% 5v5 xG vs 56.4%.
Preview · MIN at BUF
Wild at Sabres: too close to call
The model's leanTue, Oct 6
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 6, 9:00 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a MIN 3.2 - 3.2 BUF game with the Sabres at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Wild own the underlying play . The Wild own the underlying play — 60.7% 5v5 xG vs 56.4%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 59.7% . The Sabres drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Sabres. The Sabres' PDO is 0.891 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | MIN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 60.7% | 56.4% |
| Corsi% | 53.9% | 59.7% |
| PDO | 1.013 | 0.891 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 60.7% 5v5 xG vs 56.4%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.891 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
BUF 51%
51%
BUF
Model favorite
49%
51%
MIN50BUF
BUF by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 3.2–3.2 BUF; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →BUF
60.7%56.4%
53.9%59.7%
3.503.43
2.272.65
3.503.50
1.004.50
1.0130.891
MIN holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.013 vs 0.891) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
MIN
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
BUF
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
1.013
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.891
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sabres drive Corsi at 59.7%
The Sabres drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.891 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 51%–49% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 60.7% 5v5 xG vs 56.4%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.891 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 60.7% 5v5 xG vs 56.4%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.891 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs BOS · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
60:00 last game
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink11:17
- M. Boldy18:05
- Y. Trenin15:03
- J. Eriksson Ek17:47
- M. Foligno12:04
- B. Coleman13:34
- D. Yurov12:41
- R. Hartman11:30
- M. McCarron16:58
- M. Shabanov14:55
- N. Foligno13:53
- K. Kaprizov18:49
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta23:13
- Z. Bogosian15:54
- J. Brodin21:39
- Q. Hughes22:23
- J. Spurgeon20:06
- D. Hunt14:09
BUF
vs CHI · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
60:00 last game
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson19:33
- J. Norris16:32
- S. Carrick07:20
- P. Krebs13:42
- J.Kulich13:31
- J. Quinn19:07
- B. Malenstyn08:31
- R. McLeod12:02
- T. Thompson19:41
- N. Ostlund17:23
- J. Doan18:06
- K. Helenius14:39
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger15:31
- M. Samuelsson24:11
- O. Power25:12
- R. Dahlin25:23
- L. Crevier17:08
- Z. Metsa08:28
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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