TACTICAL
The Blues own the underlying play
The Blues own the underlying play — 41.6% 5v5 xG vs 35.2%.
Preview · STL at CHI
Blues at Blackhawks: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 6
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 6, 9:00 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a STL 3.1 - 2.9 CHI game with the Blues at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Blues own the underlying play . The Blues own the underlying play — 41.6% 5v5 xG vs 35.2%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 49.4% . The Blues drive Corsi at 49.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Blackhawks. The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | STL | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 41.6% | 35.2% |
| Corsi% | 49.4% | 40.8% |
| PDO | 0.945 | 0.983 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Blues own the underlying play — 41.6% 5v5 xG vs 35.2%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 49.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
STL 54%
54%
STL
Model favorite
54%
46%
STL50CHI
STL by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score STL 3.1–2.9 CHI; 17% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →CHI
41.6%35.2%
49.4%40.8%
2.152.25
3.024.14
2.501.67
3.005.00
0.9450.983
STL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.945 vs 0.983) says CHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
STL
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
CHI
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.945
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.983
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Blues drive Corsi at 49.4%
The Blues drive Corsi at 49.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Blues own the underlying play — 41.6% 5v5 xG vs 35.2%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 49.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Blues own the underlying play — 41.6% 5v5 xG vs 35.2%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 49.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
STL
vs COL · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
J. Binnington
60:00 last game
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky12:17
- R. Thomas16:30
- J. Snuggerud14:51
- P. Suter16:14
- J. Berggren14:48
- Z. Dean12:37
- J. Neighbours13:43
- D. Dube13:16
- C. McMichael15:19
- D. Holloway15:35
- M. McTavish14:57
- P. Buchnevich15:43
Defence · 6
- T. Lindstein14:26
- P. Broberg20:16
- C. Fowler23:24
- B. Carlo17:36
- A. Jiricek19:43
- C. Parayko20:45
CHI
vs BUF · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
S. Knight
59:01 last game
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato09:25
- O. Moore09:30
- J. Greenway15:55
- A. Frondell16:06
- R. Greene15:36
- C. Smith15:09
- T. Bertuzzi16:18
- N. Lardis07:41
- R. Kantserov18:48
- T. Teravainen14:22
- P. Kane19:01
- F. Nazar19:58
Defence · 6
- K. Korchinski11:21
- I. Cole20:37
- E. Del Mastro15:01
- W. Kaiser22:58
- A. Levshunov24:40
- A. Vlasic22:33
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going