TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 65.2% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
Preview · VGK at SEA
The Golden Knights are the model's lean over the Kraken — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 6
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 6, 9:00 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a VGK 3.3 - 2.8 SEA game with the Golden Knights at 58% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play. The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 65.2% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.6%. The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Kraken. The Kraken's PDO is 1.117 — running hot, expect some regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | VGK | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 65.2% | 47.1% |
| Corsi% | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| PDO | 0.965 | 1.117 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 65.2% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.117 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:40 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 58%
58%
VGK
Model favorite
58%
42%
VGK50SEA
VGK by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score VGK 3.3–2.8 SEA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →SEA
65.2%47.1%
56.6%43.4%
3.762.72
2.013.05
3.674.33
2.671.67
0.9651.117
VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.965 vs 1.117) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
VGK
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
SEA
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.965
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.117
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.6%
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.117 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGVGK
Regression watch: Golden Knights
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 65.2% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.117 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 65.2% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.117 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VGK
vs VAN · Sun, Oct 4
Expected in goal
A. Hill
60:00 last game
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel19:52
- M. Gatcomb09:07
- B. Howden17:16
- T. Connelly12:23
- N. Dowd11:11
- B. Bowman10:41
- T. Hertl16:29
- I. Barbashev13:03
- M. Stone19:45
- W. Karlsson18:20
- M. Marner21:56
- V. Olofsson14:35
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb19:00
- R. Andersson17:12
- J. Lauzon15:22
- N. Hanifin19:37
- S. Theodore22:11
- P. Wotherspoon17:25
SEA
vs CGY · Sun, Oct 4
Expected in goal
J. Daccord
60:00 last game
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle14:03
- C. Stephenson15:46
- M. Beniers15:58
- M. Samoskevich18:49
- J. McCann15:42
- R. Winterton15:39
- B. Catton12:41
- C. Douglas07:46
- S. Wright14:47
- B. McMann15:27
- K. Kakko13:15
- F. Gaudreau16:50
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson21:44
- V. Dunn18:34
- R. Evans22:27
- V. Ottavainen15:51
- R. Lindgren18:37
- B. Montour23:12
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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