WARNINGCBJ
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.61 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Blues earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
CBJ 3 · STL 5
◆ By the ModelOct 10, 9:48 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
St. Louis beat Columbus 5-3 by coming back from a two-goal deficit. J. Snuggerud scored twice in the second period, and D. Holloway assisted on three of the Blues' goals.
The number that most disagrees with the scoreboard is Columbus's finishing. The Blue Jackets scored 1.32 goals more than their chances were worth, a bigger gap than St. Louis posted.
Look at the play itself and the margin gets wider. Over 5-on-5 play, the Blues generated 70% of expected goals, a figure that scores each shot by how often shots like it become goals. St. Louis also had 6 high-danger chances to Columbus's 2, so the edge came from the quality of looks more than the volume.
J. Binnington gave up 1.3 more goals than the shots he faced should have allowed. The chances say he should have stopped more.
Columbus's weakest area was defending the rush. It allowed 21 rush shots, and the gaps showed up in every period. Those chances were worth 2.61 expected goals, and St. Louis scored twice off the rush.
The turning point came late in the third. P. Buchnevich's wrist shot from the point, at 19:17, went into an empty net.
Three stars
- D. Holloway (St. Louis), 3 assists
- J. Snuggerud (St. Louis), 2 goals
- Z. Werenski (Columbus), 1 assist
The numbers cannot say whether the finishing was luck or skill, or what was said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Data: NHL play-by-play and shift charts, Backcheck expected goals model
The goals
- CBJ 1–0, 16:10 of the first. V. Nichushkin, deflection from 4 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Binnington. Assists: S. Monahan, E. Gudbranson. 6 seconds after a CBJ faceoff win by S. Monahan. Win probability moved 18 points.
- CBJ 2–0, 19:48 of the first. K. Johnson, wrist shot from 26 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Binnington. Assists: A. Fantilli, Z. Werenski. Win probability moved 15 points.
- STL 2–1, 06:10 of the second. J. Neighbours, slap shot from 10 feet, an 11% chance by the model, past J. Greaves. Assists: J. Barron, D. Holloway. 4 seconds after a STL shot by J. Barron. Win probability moved 16 points.
- STL 2–2, 09:02 of the second. J. Snuggerud, deflection from 6 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Assists: P. Broberg, D. Holloway. Win probability moved 22 points.
- STL 2–3, 12:32 of the second. J. Snuggerud, wrist shot from 31 feet, a 2% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Assists: R. Thomas, D. Holloway. Win probability moved 22 points.
- CBJ 3–3, 06:51 of the third. C. Sillinger, wrist shot from 9 feet, a 12% chance by the model (a rebound), past J. Binnington. Assists: C. Coyle, C. Soucy. 2 seconds after a CBJ shot by C. Coyle. Win probability moved 28 points.
- STL 3–4, 09:33 of the third. J. Berggren, wrist shot from 6 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past J. Greaves. Assists: M. McTavish, C. Parayko. 2 seconds after a STL shot by M. McTavish. Win probability moved 30 points.
- STL 3–5, 19:17 of the third into an empty net. P. Buchnevich, wrist shot from 90 feet, a 51% chance by the model.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.