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← Sat, Oct 10 · the slate
Breakdown · TOR at COL

Maple Leafs pull away from the Avalanche

FinalSat, Oct 10
TORToronto Maple Leafs6COLColorado Avalanche3
The verdict · stolen

The Maple Leafs stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.76–4.54 and won anyway.

TOR 6 · COL 3
◆ By the ModelOct 10, 9:51 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Maple Leafs beat the Avalanche 6-3, and the third period settled it. A. Matthews and W. Nylander did most of the damage, and Toronto's power play cashed in along the way.

The scoreboard says rout, but the chance data says it was closer. The Avalanche took 60% of shot attempts, which count every try at the net, on target or not. Colorado also put 33 shots on goal to Toronto's 22.

Expected goals, which credit each chance for how often that kind of shot goes in, had Colorado slightly ahead, 4.54 to 3.76.

Toronto's win came from finishing and goaltending. The Maple Leafs scored 2.24 more goals than their chances should have produced, while Colorado finished 1.54 goals short of theirs.

S. Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 33 shots for Toronto, more than that workload should have allowed. M. Blackwood had the opposite night for Colorado and let in more than that workload should have allowed.

Off the rush, Toronto was lethal, scoring 5 goals from 22 chances. Colorado had 36 rush chances and scored 2 goals from them. Toronto's defense off the rush was the biggest concern, with gaps showing up in every period.

The goals kept trading. N. Blankenburg gave Toronto the first lead, and N. MacKinnon scored twice in the first to put Colorado ahead. W. Nylander tied it on the power play early in the second, and B. Nelson put Colorado back in front before Nylander tied it again at 3-3. E. Cowan put Toronto ahead 4-3 late in the second, and A. Matthews added a power-play goal and an empty-net goal in the third.

The chances favor Colorado, and the scoreboard favors Toronto. The numbers can't say why the benches ran the way they did, who was hurt, or what was said in the room. That is the beat's story.

The goals

  • TOR 1–0, 03:03 of the first. N. Blankenburg, wrist shot from 20 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: W. Nylander, N. Paul. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • COL 1–1, 10:46 of the first. N. MacKinnon, wrist shot from 13 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Bobrovsky. Assists: B. Kulak, D. Toews. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • COL 1–2, 15:14 of the first. N. MacKinnon, wrist shot from 39 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Bobrovsky. Assists: C. Makar, M. Necas. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • TOR 2–2, 06:53 of the second on the power play. W. Nylander, snap shot from 7 feet, a 17% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: G. McKenna, A. Matthews. Win probability moved 20 points.
  • COL 2–3, 12:25 of the second. B. Nelson, snap shot from 17 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past S. Bobrovsky. 3 seconds after a COL shot by B. Nelson. Win probability moved 22 points.
  • TOR 3–3, 16:47 of the second. W. Nylander, wrist shot from 30 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: A. Matthews, N. Paul. 6 seconds after a COL giveaway by B. Kulak. Win probability moved 23 points.
  • TOR 4–3, 17:33 of the second. E. Cowan, slap shot from 24 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: M. Rielly, W. Nylander. Win probability moved 25 points.
  • TOR 5–3, 12:02 of the third on the power play. A. Matthews, wrist shot from 20 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: W. Nylander, K. Marchenko. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • TOR 6–3, 19:21 of the third into an empty net. A. Matthews, wrist shot from 61 feet, an 82% chance by the model. 5 seconds after a COL blocked shot by A. Matthews.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 10
TOR
6
COL
3

Maple Leafs pull away from the Avalanche

Chances 3.8 – 4.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
TOR
3.76
COL
4.54
45% of the chances55%

The board read TOR 6, COL 3. The chances read TOR 3.8, COL 4.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
TOR
+2.2
goals above expected
TOR3.76 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
COL4.54 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Maple Leafs scored 2.2 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+25
win-probability points
47% → 72% for TOR
COL 100%the game, start to finish
TOR 100%P1 · P2 · P3
TORP2 17:33

E. Cowan makes it 4–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:03TORN. Blankenburg14%1–0
  2. P1 10:46COLN. MacKinnon8%1–1
  3. P1 15:14COLN. MacKinnon5%1–2
  4. P2 06:53TORW. NylanderPP17%2–2
  5. P2 12:25COLB. Nelson14%2–3
  6. P2 16:47TORW. Nylander11%3–3
  7. P2 17:33TORE. Cowan12%4–3
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
TOR
32 shots
6
Final
83 shots
COL
51 shots
3
TOR attackCOL attack
TOR COL Goal
32
shots · 6 in
51
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
TORCOL
1 / 5
1.82 xG
High danger
0 / 5
0.99 xG
5 / 15
1.74 xG
Medium
2 / 31
3.10 xG
0 / 22
0.21 xG
Low
1 / 41
0.46 xG

The Avalanche went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
S. Bobrovsky
+1.5
TOR · 30/33 · 59:16
Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 12 ft · P3 06:26
F
M. Blackwood
−2.5
COL · 16/21 · 56:17
Best save · a 20% chance, wrist from 5 ft · P1 14:28
Best skater on the ice
A+
TOR
A. Matthews
C · impact 3.99
22:06
Ice time
2–2
G – A
1.31
Own xG
52%
xG share
Impact · top 4
A. Matthews4.0A+
W. Nylander3.5A+
N. MacKinnon3.1A+
M. Necas1.7A
Report card
TORCOL
OffenseAA+
DefenseFF
TransitionFA+
Special teamsA+F
GoaltendingA-D
DisciplineC-B-
LuckA+F
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why TOR won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Power play cashed in
  3. 03W. Nylander led the way
Why COL lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02PDO ran cold
  3. 03Wasted the best looks
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Maple Leafs pull away from the Avalanche

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–11
  1. 03:03TORN. Blankenburg(W. Nylander, N. Paul)1–0

    Wrist shot from 20 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: O. Ekman-Larsson, C. Sissons, T. Stecher, B. Groulx, G. McKenna · against B. Burns, J. Manson, A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, M. Necas

  2. 10:46COLN. MacKinnon(B. Kulak, D. Toews)1–1

    Wrist shot from 13 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past S. Bobrovsky. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: B. Kulak, A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, M. Necas, S. Malinski · against C. Tanev, J. McCabe, J. Roslovic, A. Matthews, K. Marchenko

  3. 15:14COLN. MacKinnon(C. Makar, M. Necas)1–2

    Wrist shot from 39 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past S. Bobrovsky. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: B. Burns, J. Schwartz, J. Manson, F. Svechkov, T. Hughes · against O. Ekman-Larsson, C. Sissons, T. Stecher, B. Groulx, G. McKenna

2ndshots 4–13
  1. 06:53TORW. Nylanderpower play(G. McKenna, A. Matthews)2–2

    Snap shot from 7 feet, a 17% chance (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Win probability moved 20 points.On the ice: J. McCabe, W. Nylander, D. Raddysh, A. Matthews, G. McKenna · against A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, D. Toews, M. Necas, C. Makar

  2. 12:25COLB. Nelson2–3

    Snap shot from 17 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past S. Bobrovsky. 3s after a COL shot by B. Nelson. Win probability moved 22 points.On the ice: A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, D. Toews, M. Necas, C. Makar · against J. McCabe, W. Nylander, J. Roslovic, A. Matthews, T. Stecher

  3. 16:47TORW. Nylander(A. Matthews, N. Paul)3–3

    Wrist shot from 30 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. 6s after a COL giveaway by B. Kulak. Win probability moved 23 points.On the ice: T. Blueger, J. McCabe, N. Paul, W. Nylander, D. Raddysh · against D. Toews, N. Roy, C. Makar, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov

  4. 17:33TORE. Cowan(M. Rielly, W. Nylander)4–3

    Slap shot from 24 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Win probability moved 25 points.On the ice: M. Rielly, C. Sissons, K. Marchenko, N. Blankenburg, E. Cowan · against N. Kadri, B. Nelson, J. Manson, G. Landeskog, S. Malinski

3rdshots 10–9
  1. 12:02TORA. Matthewspower play(W. Nylander, K. Marchenko)5–3

    Wrist shot from 20 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Win probability moved 14 points.

  2. 19:21TORA. Matthewsempty net6–3

    Wrist shot from 61 feet, an 82% chance, a near-certain one. 5s after a COL block.

score reads TOR–COL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.76
TOR chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.2
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.104
TOR puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
35.3%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.76Expected goals4.54
COL 55% of the chance quality
22Shots on goal33
5High-danger chances5
42All attempts (Corsi)77
Adjusted for score: TOR 34% · COL 66%
Faceoffs · COL won56%off55%neu48%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
TOR1 / 5 · 1.82 xG
COL0 / 5 · 0.99 xG
Medium dangermid-range
TOR5 / 15 · 1.74 xG
COL2 / 31 · 3.10 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
TOR0 / 22 · 0.21 xG
COL1 / 41 · 0.46 xG

TOR went 5-for-15 from medium danger on 1.74 expected goals — 3.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
TOR
6 G · 3.76 xG · +2.2
COL
3 G · 4.54 xG · -1.5
01234567

TOR finished +2.2 against expected, COL -1.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
TOR
WRIST4/17
SNAP1/8
SLAP1/3
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/10
COL
WRIST2/19
SNAP1/13
SLAP0/8
TIP IN0/8
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
POKE0/1
OTHER0/26
TOR
COL
Off the rush
5 G on 22
2.10 xG
2 G on 36
3.70 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.39 xG
1 G on 3
0.38 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: TOR went 4-for-17, COL 2-for-19. TOR scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
S. Bobrovsky
TOR · 30/33 · .909
started · 59:16
+1.5
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
51
Avg chance faced
8.9%
Stopped vs expected
0.941 vs 0.911
Rebounds allowed
3 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/51.0+1.0
Medium2/313.1+1.1
Low1/150.5-0.5
Shorthanded0/151.6+1.6
Tips & deflections0/90.7+0.7
The save
22% chance stopped, a snap from 12 ft · P3 06:26
The one to have back
5% chance went in, a wrist from 39 ft · P1 15:14

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

M. Blackwood
COL · 16/21 · .762
started · 56:17
-2.5
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
29
Avg chance faced
8.7%
Stopped vs expected
0.828 vs 0.913
Rebounds allowed
2
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium5/151.7-3.3
Low0/110.2+0.2
Shorthanded2/30.4-1.6
Tips & deflections0/30.3+0.3
The save
20% chance stopped, a wrist from 5 ft · P1 14:28
The one to have back
11% chance went in, a wrist from 30 ft · P2 16:47

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: A. Matthews (TOR), 22:06 of ice, 2-2, 52% of the expected goals while he was out.

TOR18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
A. MatthewsC22:062-252A+
W. NylanderR19:512-329A+
G. McKennaL15:210-152A
E. CowanR16:071-027B
K. MarchenkoR16:530-147B
M. RiellyD18:480-135B
N. PaulL17:140-216C
N. BlankenburgD15:321-021C
J. RoslovicC15:210-044C
C. TanevD3:290-00C
O. Ekman-LarssonD13:460-056D
T. StecherD18:330-048D
B. GroulxC8:260-032D
B. DuhaimeL10:200-00F
D. RaddyshD21:140-032F
T. BluegerC13:200-013F
C. SissonsC16:490-021F
J. McCabeD23:400-021F
COL18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
N. MacKinnonC23:552-078A+
M. NecasC24:070-178A
C. MakarD21:360-178A
B. NelsonC17:481-065A
T. HughesR14:010-086A
N. KadriC20:490-074B
D. ToewsD19:060-167B
B. KulakD17:230-149B
J. MansonD15:550-069B
A. LehkonenL20:180-069C
G. LandeskogL17:510-059C
B. BurnsD15:410-070C
Z. L'HeureuxL7:180-051C
N. RoyC8:200-037D
S. MalinskiD17:450-051D
P. KellyC10:560-045D
J. SchwartzL10:400-092D
F. SvechkovC11:190-044D

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, TOR: J. Tavares, M. Wood, Z. MacEwen. Scratched, COL: N. Juulsen. Referees Gord Dwyer and Liam Maaskant; linesmen Libor Suchanek and Travis Gawryletz.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionTORCOL
Offense
▸Basis

TOR Created 3.76 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.82 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.10 xG).

COL Created 4.54 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (0.99 xG) and 36 rush shots (3.70 xG).

A
94
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis

TOR Allowed 4.54 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (0.99 xG) and 36 rush shots (3.70 xG).

COL Allowed 3.76 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.82 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.10 xG).

F
45
F
56
Transition
▸Basis

TOR Rush shots 22–36, rush xG 2.10–3.70 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

COL Rush shots 36–22, rush xG 3.70–2.10 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

F
52
A+
98
Special teams
▸Basis

TOR 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.43 PP xG.

COL 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.22 PP xG.

A+
100
F
58
Goaltending
▸Basis

TOR +1.54 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.

COL -1.24 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.

A-
90
D
63
Discipline
▸Basis

TOR Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.

COL Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.

C-
70
B-
80
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

TOR Finishing +2.24 goals vs xG plus +1.54 GSAx of save luck = +3.78 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

COL Finishing -1.54 goals vs xG plus -1.24 GSAx of save luck = -2.78 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A+
100
F
53
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGTOR

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 36 rush shots worth 3.70 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGCOL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.10 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHCOL

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 36 rush shots worth 3.70 xG.

STRENGTHTOR

Dangerous off the rush

5 goals on 22 rush shots worth 2.10 xG.

LUCKCOL

PDO ran cold

Single-game PDO of 0.896 — the bounces went against them tonight.

LUCKTOR

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 6 on 3.76 xG — +2.24 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
TOR
32 shots
6
Final
83 shots
COL
51 shots
3
TOR attackCOL attack
TOR COL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — TOR left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
W. Nylander
#88 · R · TOR
2 G · 3 A · 4 SOG · 19:51 on ice · +1
A. Matthews
#34 · C · TOR
2 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 22:06 on ice
N. MacKinnon
#29 · C · COL
2 G · 0 A · 8 SOG · 23:55 on ice
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
Keep going

Where to next

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