Motion-blurred skater in a Tampa Bay Lightning sweater

Breakdown · TBL at NYI

Lightning hold off the Islanders

FinalSat, Oct 10

TBLTampa Bay Lightning5 NYINew York Islanders3

The verdict · earned

The Lightning earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

TBL 5 · NYI 3

◆ By the ModelOct 10, 10:11 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Lightning beat the Islanders 5-3, but the score makes the margin look bigger than the play. Their finishing did more of the work than their chances alone would suggest.

The underlying play still leaned their way. The Lightning controlled 57% of 5-on-5 expected goals. Their goals ran 1.81 above that total, and that gap is the finishing.

The Islanders were not passive either. They created 2.40 expected goals' worth of chances and still lost.

J. Guentzel opened the scoring in the first period, and B. Hagel doubled the lead before it ended. The Islanders answered in the second. T. DeAngelo and M. Schaefer cut it to 3-2, and B. Schenn tipped one on the power play to tie it at 3-3.

Late in the third, B. Hagel's wrist shot from 46 feet made it 4-3. It was the goal that moved win probability the most. An empty-net goal closed it out.

The Lightning were most dangerous off the rush, and that produced four of their goals.

The numbers cannot say whether that finishing was skill or luck, or what was said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The goals

TBL 1–0, 05:45 of the first. J. Guentzel, wrist shot from 27 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Win probability moved 15 points.
TBL 2–0, 15:42 of the first. B. Hagel, wrist shot from 8 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Assists: V. Hedman, M. Crozier. Win probability moved 14 points.
NYI 2–1, 06:27 of the second. T. DeAngelo, wrist shot from 43 feet, a 4% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: O. Palat. 9 seconds after a NYI giveaway by S. Mayfield. Win probability moved 16 points.
TBL 3–1, 07:54 of the second on the power play. J. Guentzel, wrist shot from 6 feet, a 16% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Assists: N. Kucherov, B. Hagel. Win probability moved 16 points.
NYI 3–2, 11:41 of the second. M. Schaefer, snap shot from 60 feet, a 2% chance by the model, past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: T. DeAngelo, O. Palat. Win probability moved 16 points.
NYI 3–3, 19:53 of the second on the power play. B. Schenn, tip-in from 1 feet, a 47% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: B. Horvat, M. Maccelli. 5 seconds after a NYI blocked shot by B. Hagel. Win probability moved 26 points.
TBL 4–3, 18:16 of the third. B. Hagel, wrist shot from 46 feet, a 1% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Assists: M. Crozier, R. McDonagh. Win probability moved 46 points.
TBL 5–3, 18:37 of the third into an empty net. B. Hagel, snap shot from 72 feet, a 66% chance by the model. Assists: A. Cirelli, N. Kucherov. Win probability moved 6 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 10

TBL

NYI

Lightning hold off the Islanders

Chances 3.2 – 2.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Lightning earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

TBL

3.19

NYI

2.40

57% of the chances43%

The board read TBL 5, NYI 3. The chances read TBL 3.2, NYI 2.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

TBL

+1.8

goals above expected

TBL3.19 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI2.40 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Lightning scored 1.8 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+46

win-probability points

48% → 93% for TBL

NYI 100%the game, start to finish

TBL 100%P1 · P2 · P3

TBLP3 18:16

B. Hagel makes it 4–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 05:45TBLJ. Guentzel12%1–0
P1 15:42TBLB. Hagel14%2–0
P2 06:27NYIT. DeAngelo4%2–1
P2 07:54TBLJ. GuentzelPP16%3–1
P2 11:41NYIM. Schaefer2%3–2
P2 19:53NYIB. SchennPP47%3–3
P3 18:16TBLB. Hagel1%4–3

+1 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

TBL

32 shots

Final

63 shots

NYI

31 shots

TBL NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

TBLNYI

1 / 4

1.47 xG

High danger

1 / 2

0.66 xG

3 / 12

1.48 xG

Medium

0 / 14

1.44 xG

1 / 33

0.24 xG

Low

2 / 31

0.31 xG

High-danger looks: TBL 1 of 4, NYI 1 of 2.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A. Vasilevskiy

−0.6

TBL · 20/23 · 60:00

Best save · a 19% chance, snap from 16 ft · P2 18:58

D-

I. Sorokin

−1.5

NYI · 21/25 · 59:49

Best save · a 32% chance, wrist from 6 ft · P2 09:57

Best skater on the ice

A+

TBL

B. Hagel

L · impact 4.30

21:32

Ice time

3–1

G – A

1.29

Own xG

75%

xG share

Impact · top 4

B. Hagel4.3A+

J. Guentzel2.2A+

T. DeAngelo1.7A+

O. Palat1.6A

Report card

TBLNYI

OffenseB+C

DefenseCD-

TransitionBD+

Special teamsB-A+

GoaltendingD+D+

DisciplineBD

LuckBC

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why TBL won

01Dangerous off the rush
02B. Hagel led the way
03Won on the merits

Why NYI lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Paraded to the penalty box
03I. Sorokin gave one back

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Lightning hold off the Islanders

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–4

05:45TBLJ. Guentzel1–0
Wrist shot from 27 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: J. Carlson, N. Kucherov, B. Point, G. Goncalves, J. Moser · against B. Schenn, L. Stanley, C. Ritchie, M. Schaefer, V. Eklund
15:42TBLB. Hagel(V. Hedman, M. Crozier)2–0
Wrist shot from 8 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: R. McDonagh, Z. Girgensons, E. Cernak, P. Holmberg, I. Mikheyev · against B. Schenn, S. Mayfield, T. DeAngelo, C. Ritchie, V. Eklund

2ndshots 8–10

06:27NYIT. DeAngelo(O. Palat)2–1
Wrist shot from 43 feet, a 4% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. 9s after a NYI giveaway by S. Mayfield. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: K. Palmieri, A. Pelech, B. Horvat, R. Pulock, E. Heineman · against R. McDonagh, Z. Girgensons, E. Cernak, P. Holmberg, I. Mikheyev
07:54TBLJ. Guentzelpower play(N. Kucherov, B. Hagel)3–1
Wrist shot from 6 feet, a 16% chance (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: R. McDonagh, Z. Girgensons, E. Cernak, P. Holmberg, I. Mikheyev · against B. Schenn, T. DeAngelo, C. Ritchie, M. Schaefer, V. Eklund
11:41NYIM. Schaefer(T. DeAngelo, O. Palat)3–2
Snap shot from 60 feet, a 2% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past A. Vasilevskiy. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: B. Schenn, A. Pelech, R. Pulock, C. Ritchie, V. Eklund · against J. Carlson, N. Kucherov, B. Point, G. Goncalves, J. Moser
19:53NYIB. Schennpower play(B. Horvat, M. Maccelli)3–3
Tip-in from 1 feet, a 47% chance (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. 5s after a NYI block. Win probability moved 26 points.On the ice: O. Palat, J. Pageau, A. Pelech, A. Duclair, R. Pulock · against Z. Girgensons, C. D'Astous, P. Holmberg, I. Mikheyev, M. Crozier

3rdshots 8–9

18:16TBLB. Hagel(M. Crozier, R. McDonagh)4–3
Wrist shot from 46 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Win probability moved 46 points.
18:37TBLB. Hagelempty net(A. Cirelli, N. Kucherov)5–3
Snap shot from 72 feet, a 66% chance, a near-certain one. Win probability moved 6 points.

score reads TBL–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.19

TBL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.8

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.038

TBL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

51.0%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.19Expected goals2.40

TBL 57% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal23

4High-danger chances2

49All attempts (Corsi)47

Adjusted for score: TBL 48% · NYI 52%

Faceoffs · NYI won50%off52%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

TBL1 / 4 · 1.47 xG

NYI1 / 2 · 0.66 xG

Medium dangermid-range

TBL3 / 12 · 1.48 xG

NYI0 / 14 · 1.44 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

TBL1 / 33 · 0.24 xG

NYI2 / 31 · 0.31 xG

NYI went 2-for-31 from low danger on 0.31 expected goals — 1.7 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

TBL

5 G · 3.19 xG · +1.8

NYI

3 G · 2.40 xG · +0.6

0123456

TBL finished +1.8 against expected, NYI +0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

TBL

WRIST4/13

SNAP1/12

SLAP0/2

BACKHAND0/2

TIP IN0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/19

NYI

WRIST1/20

SNAP1/2

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/2

TIP IN1/2

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/16

TBL

NYI

Off the rush

4 G on 26

2.50 xG

2 G on 20

1.97 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: TBL went 4-for-13, NYI 1-for-20. TBL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Vasilevskiy

TBL · 20/23 · .870

started · 60:00

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 31
Avg chance faced: 7.7%
Stopped vs expected: 0.903 vs 0.923
Rebounds allowed: 0

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/20.7-0.3

Medium0/141.4+1.4

Low2/150.3-1.7

Shorthanded1/50.9-0.1

Tips & deflections1/30.7-0.3

The save

19% chance stopped, a snap from 16 ft · P2 18:58

The one to have back

2% chance went in, a snap from 60 ft · P2 11:41

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Sorokin

NYI · 21/25 · .840

started · 59:49

-1.5

saved above expected

D-

the night

Attempts faced: 29
Avg chance faced: 8.7%
Stopped vs expected: 0.862 vs 0.913
Rebounds allowed: 0

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/30.8+0.8

Medium3/121.5-1.5

Low1/140.2-0.8

Shorthanded1/60.8-0.2

The save

32% chance stopped, a wrist from 6 ft · P2 09:57

The one to have back

1% chance went in, a wrist from 46 ft · P3 18:16

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: B. Hagel (TBL), 21:32 of ice, 3-1, 75% of the expected goals while he was out.

TBL18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
B. HagelL	21:32	3-1	6	1.29	75	1/0	4.30	11.97	A+
J. GuentzelC	19:29	2-0	4	0.32	78	0/0	2.19	6.75	A+
N. KucherovR	17:46	0-2	1	0.04	78	0/0	1.64	5.53	A
M. CrozierD	16:30	0-2	2	0.01	44	0/0	1.36	4.93	A
A. CirelliC	18:04	0-1	0	0.06	79	0/0	1.01	3.37	B
R. McDonaghD	15:56	0-1	1	0.02	52	1/0	0.91	3.41	B
V. HedmanD	10:34	0-1	0	0.00	47	0/0	0.67	3.80	B
S. SabourinR	9:29	0-0	1	0.30	74	2/1	0.50	3.14	B
C. GeekieC	11:27	0-0	1	0.12	74	0/0	0.28	1.47	C
J. CarlsonD	20:43	0-0	1	0.11	67	0/0	0.35	1.02	C
Z. GirgensonsC	15:14	0-0	4	0.49	33	1/0	0.28	1.09	C
B. PointC	18:57	0-0	1	0.30	63	0/0	0.28	0.90	C
E. CernakD	19:01	0-0	1	0.10	49	0/0	0.18	0.58	C
G. GoncalvesC	18:13	0-0	0	0.00	56	0/0	0.12	0.40	D
J. MoserD	17:01	0-0	1	0.01	46	0/0	0.08	0.28	D
C. D'AstousD	13:30	0-0	2	0.02	41	0/1	-0.11	-0.50	D
P. HolmbergR	17:37	0-0	0	0.00	32	0/1	-0.50	-1.70	F
I. MikheyevR	15:16	0-0	0	0.00	23	0/0	-0.56	-2.18	F

NYI18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
T. DeAngeloD	16:33	1-1	2	0.19	53	0/0	1.74	6.32	A+
O. PalatL	15:23	0-2	0	0.08	65	0/0	1.60	6.26	A
M. SchaeferD	27:07	1-0	9	0.36	60	1/0	1.89	4.19	A
B. HorvatC	20:09	0-1	3	0.58	67	0/0	1.46	4.34	A
B. SchennC	17:20	1-0	2	0.71	37	0/0	1.05	3.64	B
M. MaccelliL	14:29	0-1	0	0.00	50	0/0	0.55	2.26	B
E. HeinemanL	13:41	0-0	2	0.20	73	0/1	0.41	1.82	B
A. DuclairL	13:17	0-0	1	0.16	70	0/0	0.36	1.64	C
K. PalmieriC	15:16	0-0	0	0.00	69	0/0	0.35	1.38	C
J. PageauC	14:35	0-0	0	0.00	58	0/0	0.15	0.62	C
L. StanleyD	19:38	0-0	2	0.05	46	1/1	0.12	0.36	D
S. MayfieldD	14:45	0-0	1	0.06	45	0/0	0.04	0.18	D
C. CizikasC	10:10	0-0	0	0.00	22	1/0	-0.07	-0.38	D
A. PelechD	21:05	0-0	0	0.01	44	0/1	-0.15	-0.42	D
R. PulockD	19:14	0-0	0	0.00	42	0/1	-0.14	-0.45	D
C. RitchieC	13:37	0-0	1	0.01	7	0/0	-0.30	-1.33	F
V. EklundR	13:25	0-0	0	0.00	22	0/1	-0.33	-1.45	F
S. HolmstromR	13:18	0-0	0	0.00	12	0/0	-0.39	-1.74	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, TBL: J. Viel, E. Lilleberg. Scratched, NYI: A. Romanov, K. MacLean, M. Kessel. Referees Chris Schlenker and Eric Furlatt; linesmen Dylan Blujus and Jonathan Deschamps.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionTBLNYI

Offense

▸Basis

TBL Created 3.19 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.47 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.50 xG).

NYI Created 2.40 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.66 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.97 xG).

B+

Defense

▸Basis

TBL Allowed 2.40 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.66 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.97 xG).

NYI Allowed 3.19 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.47 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.50 xG).

D-

Transition

▸Basis

TBL Rush shots 26–20, rush xG 2.50–1.97 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

NYI Rush shots 20–26, rush xG 1.97–2.50 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

D+

Special teams

▸Basis

TBL 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.76 PP xG.

NYI 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.90 PP xG.

B-

A+

100

Goaltending

▸Basis

TBL -0.60 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.

NYI -0.81 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.

D+

Discipline

▸Basis

TBL Took 3 penalties for 9 PIM vs 5 for 13 on the other side.

NYI Took 5 penalties for 13 PIM vs 3 for 9 on the other side.

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

TBL Finishing +1.81 goals vs xG plus -0.60 GSAx of save luck = +1.21 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

NYI Finishing +0.60 goals vs xG plus -0.81 GSAx of save luck = -0.21 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

WARNINGNYI

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.50 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHTBL

Dangerous off the rush

4 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.50 xG.

WARNINGTBL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.97 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHNYI

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 20 rush shots worth 1.97 xG.

LUCKTBL

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 5 on 3.19 xG — +1.81 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

STRENGTHTBL

B. Hagel led the way

3G 1A in 21:32 — the game's first star.

63 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

TBL

32 shots

Final

63 shots

NYI

31 shots

TBL NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — TBL left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

B. Hagel

#38 · L · TBL

3 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 21:32 on ice · +2

J. Guentzel

#59 · C · TBL

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 19:29 on ice · +1

N. Kucherov

#86 · R · TBL

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 17:46 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

Keep going

Where to next

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