TACTICAL
The Ducks drive Corsi at 49.2%
The Ducks drive Corsi at 49.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · ANA at NYR
Ducks at Rangers: too close to call
The model's leanMon, Oct 19
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 19, 9:00 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Rangers, but only just. It projects Rangers 3.3, Ducks 3.1.
New York's win probability is 52%, and Anaheim's is 48%. That gap is too thin to call a favorite, so the margins will decide this game. Neither team has a clear edge in the underlying numbers, either. The table below shows each side's season 5v5 figures.
| Metric | Ducks | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 50.5% | 52.8% |
| Shot attempt share | 49.2% | 46.1% |
| Shooting plus save percentage | 0.993 | 1.015 |
The rows split. New York leads on expected goals and on shooting plus save percentage, while Anaheim leads on shot attempts. The model expects territorial tilt, so watch which side controls the puck in the first period.
The goaltending is where the margin could move. L. Dostal has let in 1.4 more goals than expected over 6 games, with an 88.2% save percentage. D. Garand has stopped 1.8 more goals than expected over 6 games, with a 92.7% save percentage. L. Dostal was also beatable last time out, posting an 81.8% save percentage in his last start.
The verdict is a lean toward New York, and this one could go either way.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NYR 52%
52%
NYR
Model favorite
48%
52%
ANA50NYR
NYR by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score ANA 3.1–3.3 NYR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
ANA← edge
edge →NYR
50.5%52.8%
49.2%46.1%
3.053.19
2.982.85
3.142.80
3.002.20
0.9931.015
NYR holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.015) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–10
ANA
4-3-0
+1 GD · 2d rest
NYR
6-3-1
+6 GD · 1d rest
0.993
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.015
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALANA
L. Dostal was beatable last time out
L. Dostal stopped just 81.8% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 49.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 49.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Dostal (-1.4 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.2% SV) vs D. Garand (+1.8 GSAx in 6 GP, 92.7% SV).
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
ANA
vs BOS · Fri, Oct 16
Expected in goal
L. Dostal
2 days rest.818 last start59:21 played
Backup Ville Husso · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Nesterenko12:10
- A. Killorn16:06
- A. Greer10:55
- J. Caulfield13:02
- J. Malott09:34
- N. Klepov17:25
- T. Washe12:34
- B. Sennecke23:12
- C. Gauthier21:20
- F. Vatrano13:00
- L. Carlsson20:23
- R. McQueen15:14
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe26:26
- D. Helleson20:12
- N. Warren14:45
- T. Hinds14:30
- T. Luneau18:17
- P. Mintyukov16:05
NYR
vs CBJ · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
D. Garand
1 day rest.966 last start63:26 played
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +6.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller21:33
- A. Lafrenière22:52
- T. Raddysh07:23
- P. Dorofeyev20:12
- E. Tolvanen11:04
- T. Kartye16:17
- O. Bjorkstrand08:43
- J. Dowling06:26
- N. Laba14:02
- W. Cuylle14:57
- M. Zibanejad24:43
- G. Perreault18:37
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider19:19
- S. Durzi20:13
- A. Smits14:46
- A. Fox24:07
- M. Pettersson20:41
- V. Gavrikov21:49
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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