TACTICAL
The Avalanche own the underlying play
The Avalanche own the underlying play — 55.0% 5v5 xG vs 37.2%.
Preview · COL at PHI
The Avalanche are the model's lean over the Flyers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanMon, Oct 19
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 19, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Colorado should win this one, and the reason is less about recent results than about who has been doing the work. The Avalanche have been the better five-on-five team, and Philadelphia has been on the wrong side of the bounces.
The model's projected score is Colorado 3.4, Philadelphia 2.9. That gives the Avalanche a 58% chance to win.
The clearest evidence sits in the underlying play. Over the season, Colorado has generated 55.0% of the expected goals at five-on-five, a measure of how dangerous each chance was rather than whether it went in. Philadelphia sits at 37.2%, a wide gap for any single matchup.
Colorado also controls shot attempts, taking 51.3% of them over the season, so expect the territory to tilt its way. Philadelphia's share is 40.8%.
Colorado is also the hotter team by points pace, at 5-2-1 over its eight games so far. Philadelphia is underwater, with a goal differential of -20 over its last 10 games.
Luck matters as much as the play here. PDO, the sum of shooting and save percentage that tracks puck luck, is 0.959 for Philadelphia. That is running cold and due for positive regression. Colorado's 1.070 is running hot, so expect some regression there too.
In goal, M. Blackwood has allowed more goals than expected, with a goals saved above expected of -1.1 over six games. His save percentage is 89.1%. D. Vladar sits at -1.2 over five games, and his save percentage is 88.9%. Both have allowed more than their workload predicted.
Colorado's edge in the play is real, and Philadelphia's cold shooting is the variable to watch.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
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Win probability
The model's lean
COL 58%
58%
COL
Model favorite
58%
42%
COL50PHI
COL by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score COL 3.4–2.9 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →PHI
55.0%37.2%
51.3%40.8%
3.402.20
2.793.71
4.501.40
2.883.30
1.0700.959
COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.070 vs 0.959) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–10
COL
5-2-1
+12 GD · 2d rest
PHI
1-6-3
-20 GD · 1d rest
1.070
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.959
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.3%
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.959 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.070 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 55.0% 5v5 xG vs 37.2%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.959 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.070 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 55.0% 5v5 xG vs 37.2%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-1.1 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.1% SV) vs D. Vladar (-1.2 GSAx in 5 GP, 88.9% SV).
- The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-1 over their 8 games so far).
- The Flyers are underwater at -20 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.959 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
COL
vs PIT · Fri, Oct 16
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
2 days rest.938 last start60:00 played
Backup Scott Wedgewood · -0.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- F. Svechkov14:34
- B. Nelson20:27
- T. Hughes12:27
- P. Kelly12:13
- N. MacKinnon22:59
- G. Brindley08:39
- A. Lehkonen18:33
- J. Schwartz14:03
- M. Necas20:58
- N. Kadri20:55
- G. Landeskog14:56
Defence · 7
- D. Toews22:54
- C. Makar22:19
- B. Kulak17:47
- J. Manson14:41
- N. Juulsen07:33
- S. Malinski14:23
- B. Burns13:39
PHI
vs OTT · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
D. Vladar
1 day rest.962 last start59:43 played
Backup Joseph Woll · +3.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- G. Wilson07:51
- S. Couturier18:00
- C. Dvorak21:41
- J. Studnicka09:05
- N. Cates14:00
- M. Michkov14:29
- T. Zegras19:18
- N. Acciari11:52
- M. Bunting15:29
- T. Foerster18:39
- D. Barkey15:39
- P. Martone13:28
Defence · 6
- D.Jiricek14:08
- T. Sanheim27:01
- J. Drysdale21:50
- N. Seeler19:29
- S. Benoit15:06
- O. Bonk19:12
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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