TACTICAL
The Maple Leafs own the underlying play
The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.3% 5v5 xG vs 42.6%.
Preview · SJS at TOR
Sharks at Maple Leafs: a true toss-up
The model's leanMon, Oct 19
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 19, 9:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a SJS 3.1 - 3.4 TOR game with the Maple Leafs at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play. The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.3% 5v5 xG vs 42.6%.
- Regression watch: Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- Regression watch: Sharks. The Sharks' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Sharks are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | SJS | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 42.6% | 47.3% |
| Corsi% | 47.9% | 46.9% |
| PDO | 0.945 | 0.970 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.3% 5v5 xG vs 42.6%.
Regression Watch
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: A. Nedeljkovic (+2.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 92.0% SV) vs S. Bobrovsky (+1.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.1% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TOR 53%
54%
TOR
Model favorite
46%
54%
SJS50TOR
TOR by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 3.1–3.4 TOR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →TOR
42.6%47.3%
47.9%46.9%
2.653.13
3.583.49
2.633.22
3.503.44
0.9450.970
TOR holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.945 vs 0.970) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
SJS
4-3-1
-7 GD · 1d rest
TOR
3-4-2
-3 GD · 1d rest
0.945
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.970
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGTOR
Regression watch: Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 53%–46% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.3% 5v5 xG vs 42.6%.
Regression watch
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.3% 5v5 xG vs 42.6%.
- Goalie matchup: A. Nedeljkovic (+2.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 92.0% SV) vs S. Bobrovsky (+1.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.1% SV).
- The Sharks are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs DET · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
1 day rest.889 last start64:38 played
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith25:11
- A. Wennberg23:00
- B. Goodrow11:41
- M. Marchment14:49
- I. Stenberg17:30
- K. Sherwood12:55
- C. Graf14:03
- Z. Ostapchuk11:09
- M. Celebrini26:54
- T. Toffoli12:03
- M. Misa11:29
- I. Chernyshov13:42
Defence · 6
- N. Allan14:15
- S. Dickinson16:48
- M. Kesselring20:23
- D. Orlov20:09
- D. Nurse21:47
- J. Trouba22:15
TOR
vs NYI · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
1 day rest.842 last start59:18 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · -1.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons15:08
- Z. MacEwen09:43
- N. Paul14:36
- B. Duhaime11:53
- B. Groulx10:00
- A. Matthews19:56
- E. Cowan14:41
- T. Blueger14:49
- K. Marchenko16:45
- W. Nylander20:34
- G. McKenna17:56
- J. Roslovic15:54
Defence · 6
- N. Blankenburg13:39
- J. McCabe19:57
- T. Stecher20:21
- D. Raddysh24:21
- M. Rielly17:50
- O. Ekman-Larsson18:39
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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