STRENGTHCGY
D. Wolf stole it
D. Wolf stopped 26 of 27 (0.963) — +2.29 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.
Morning report · executive brief
Calgary Flames
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Mon, Nov 22026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Flamesactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Mon, Nov 2): CGY 2 - 1 SJS — a win over the Sharks.
The model's top flag from that game: d. wolf stole it — D. Wolf stopped 26 of 27 (0.963) — +2.29 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.
Next opponent
Last game report card · CGY @ SJS · Mon, Nov 2
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCGYSJS
Offense
▸Basis
CGY Created 2.33 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.49 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.74 xG).
SJS Created 3.29 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (0.97 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.72 xG).
C
73
B+
88
Defense
▸Basis
CGY Allowed 3.29 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (0.97 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.72 xG).
SJS Allowed 2.33 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.49 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.74 xG).
D-
62
C+
77
Transition
▸Basis
CGY Rush shots 20–30, rush xG 1.74–2.72 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
SJS Rush shots 30–20, rush xG 2.72–1.74 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D-
60
A-
90
Special teams
▸Basis
CGY 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.22 PP xG.
SJS 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.64 PP xG.
F
51
F
57
Goaltending
▸Basis
CGY +2.29 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.
SJS +0.33 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
A+
98
C+
78
Discipline
▸Basis
CGY Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
SJS Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
CGY Finishing -0.33 goals vs xG plus +2.29 GSAx of save luck = +1.96 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
SJS Finishing -2.29 goals vs xG plus +0.33 GSAx of save luck = -1.96 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A-
91
F
59
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
SURPRISECGY
Won against the run of play
The Flames took it 2-1 with only 42% of expected goals (2.33–3.29).
WARNINGCGY
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 30 rush shots worth 2.72 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
STRENGTHCGY
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 20 rush shots worth 1.74 xG.
TACTICALCGY
The moment it turned
Sam Dickinson's wrist shot from the slot in P3 swung the game.
Warning signs
WARNINGCGY
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 30 rush shots worth 2.72 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGCGY
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.22 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Positive trends
STRENGTHCGY
D. Wolf stole it
D. Wolf stopped 26 of 27 (0.963) — +2.29 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.
STRENGTHCGY
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 20 rush shots worth 1.74 xG.
STRENGTHCGY
A. Klapka led the way
1G 1A in 11:36 — the game's first star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseCavg 84▼ DECLINING
DefenseD-avg 59▲ IMPROVING
TransitionD-avg 76▼ DECLINING
Special teamsFavg 75▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingA+avg 78▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineCavg 71▲ IMPROVING
LuckA-avg 76▲ IMPROVING
CGY latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
10/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 29th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
43,198
road miles flown
8
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
10
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
10
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,734 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d8
1d53
2d16
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
19 games with more rest than the opponent · 16 with fewer · 48 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,805 travel miles
Mar 12 – Mar 21
6 games in 10 days with 3,162 travel miles
Nov 14 – Nov 23
6 games in 10 days with 3,148 travel miles
Oct 28 – Nov 6
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach