WARNINGCHI
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 28 rush shots worth 2.44 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Chicago Blackhawks
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Mon, Nov 22026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Blackhawksactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Mon, Nov 2): COL 5 - 2 CHI — a loss to the Avalanche.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 28 rush shots worth 2.44 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Next opponent
Last game report card · COL @ CHI · Mon, Nov 2
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCOLCHI
Offense
▸Basis
COL Created 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.50 xG) and 28 rush shots (2.44 xG).
CHI Created 2.58 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.41 xG) and 24 rush shots (1.69 xG).
B+
88
C
75
Defense
▸Basis
COL Allowed 2.58 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.41 xG) and 24 rush shots (1.69 xG).
CHI Allowed 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.50 xG) and 28 rush shots (2.44 xG).
C
75
D-
62
Transition
▸Basis
COL Rush shots 28–24, rush xG 2.44–1.69 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
CHI Rush shots 24–28, rush xG 1.69–2.44 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
B
84
D
66
Special teams
▸Basis
COL 1-for-5 on the power play (20%; league ≈21%) with 1.00 PP xG.
CHI 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.19 PP xG.
C
76
D-
60
Goaltending
▸Basis
COL +0.58 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
CHI -0.49 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.
B-
81
C-
70
Discipline
▸Basis
COL Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.
CHI Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
COL Finishing +1.49 goals vs xG plus +0.58 GSAx of save luck = +2.07 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
CHI Finishing -0.58 goals vs xG plus -0.49 GSAx of save luck = -1.07 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A-
92
D
66
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHCHI
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 24 rush shots worth 1.69 xG.
WARNINGCHI
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 1.19 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
LUCKCHI
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.952 — the bounces went against them tonight.
WARNINGCHI
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 6 penalties for 12 minutes (opponent: 5 for 10).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Warning signs
WARNINGCHI
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 28 rush shots worth 2.44 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGCHI
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 1.19 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
WARNINGCHI
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 6 penalties for 12 minutes (opponent: 5 for 10).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Positive trends
STRENGTHCHI
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 24 rush shots worth 1.69 xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseCavg 90▼ DECLINING
DefenseD-avg 43▲ IMPROVING
TransitionDavg 68→ FLAT
Special teamsD-avg 73▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingC-avg 89▼ DECLINING
DisciplineC-avg 81▼ DECLINING
LuckDavg 77▼ DECLINING
CHI latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
45/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 18th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
39,578
road miles flown
12
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
17
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
16
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
2,525 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d12
1d53
2d12
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 18 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 3,797 travel miles
Feb 28 – Mar 8
6 games in 10 days with 3,783 travel miles
Nov 25 – Dec 4
6 games in 10 days with 3,391 travel miles
Oct 29 – Nov 7
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach - 03
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm