WARNINGOTT
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 33 rush shots worth 2.77 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Ottawa Senators
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Sun, Nov 12026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Senatorsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Sun, Nov 1): OTT 3 - 6 ANA — a loss to the Ducks.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 33 rush shots worth 2.77 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Next opponent
Last game report card · OTT @ ANA · Sun, Nov 1
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionOTTANA
Offense
▸Basis
OTT Created 3.39 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.88 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.76 xG).
ANA Created 3.32 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.41 xG) and 33 rush shots (2.77 xG).
A
93
B+
87
Defense
▸Basis
OTT Allowed 3.32 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.41 xG) and 33 rush shots (2.77 xG).
ANA Allowed 3.39 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.88 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.76 xG).
D
63
F
57
Transition
▸Basis
OTT Rush shots 21–33, rush xG 2.76–2.77 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
ANA Rush shots 33–21, rush xG 2.77–2.76 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
69
B-
81
Special teams
▸Basis
OTT 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.61 PP xG.
ANA 4-for-4 on the power play (100%; league ≈21%) with 1.43 PP xG.
F
54
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
OTT -2.68 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.
ANA +0.39 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
F
48
C+
79
Discipline
▸Basis
OTT Took 6 penalties for 15 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.
ANA Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 6 for 15 on the other side.
D+
68
B-
82
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
OTT Finishing -0.39 goals vs xG plus -2.68 GSAx of save luck = -3.07 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
ANA Finishing +2.68 goals vs xG plus +0.39 GSAx of save luck = +3.07 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
50
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGOTT
J. Johansson couldn't make the stop
J. Johansson allowed 6 on 33 shots (0.818) — 2.68 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
STRENGTHOTT
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.76 xG.
WARNINGOTT
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 0.61 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
LUCKOTT
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.953 — the bounces went against them tonight.
Warning signs
WARNINGOTT
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 33 rush shots worth 2.77 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGOTT
J. Johansson couldn't make the stop
J. Johansson allowed 6 on 33 shots (0.818) — 2.68 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
WARNINGOTT
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 0.61 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
WARNINGOTT
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 6 penalties for 15 minutes (opponent: 6 for 12).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Positive trends
STRENGTHOTT
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.76 xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseAavg 94→ FLAT
DefenseDavg 66→ FLAT
TransitionD+avg 70→ FLAT
Special teamsFavg 66▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingFavg 77▼ DECLINING
DisciplineD+avg 73▼ DECLINING
LuckFavg 76▼ DECLINING
OTT latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
ELITE
Load index
94/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 3rd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
35,653
road miles flown
14
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
18
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
19
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
5,174 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d14
1d48
2d14
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
16 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 45 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 12 days with 5,174 travel miles
Oct 24 – Nov 4
6 games in 10 days with 3,385 travel miles
Feb 9 – Feb 18
6 games in 13 days with 4,964 travel miles
Jan 2 – Jan 14
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
J. Johansson couldn't make the stopcoachgm - 03
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach - 04
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm