LUCKSJS
Cold finishing night
Scored 1 on 3.29 xG — -2.29 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Morning report · executive brief
San Jose Sharks
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Mon, Nov 22026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Sharksactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Mon, Nov 2): CGY 2 - 1 SJS — a loss to the Flames.
The model's top flag from that game: cold finishing night — Scored 1 on 3.29 xG — -2.29 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Next opponent
Last game report card · CGY @ SJS · Mon, Nov 2
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCGYSJS
Offense
▸Basis
CGY Created 2.33 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.49 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.74 xG).
SJS Created 3.29 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (0.97 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.72 xG).
C
73
B+
88
Defense
▸Basis
CGY Allowed 3.29 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (0.97 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.72 xG).
SJS Allowed 2.33 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.49 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.74 xG).
D-
62
C+
77
Transition
▸Basis
CGY Rush shots 20–30, rush xG 1.74–2.72 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
SJS Rush shots 30–20, rush xG 2.72–1.74 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D-
60
A-
90
Special teams
▸Basis
CGY 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.22 PP xG.
SJS 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.64 PP xG.
F
51
F
57
Goaltending
▸Basis
CGY +2.29 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.
SJS +0.33 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
A+
98
C+
78
Discipline
▸Basis
CGY Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
SJS Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
CGY Finishing -0.33 goals vs xG plus +2.29 GSAx of save luck = +1.96 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
SJS Finishing -2.29 goals vs xG plus +0.33 GSAx of save luck = -1.96 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A-
91
F
59
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHSJS
Dangerous off the rush
0 goals on 30 rush shots worth 2.72 xG.
WARNINGSJS
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.74 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGSJS
Deserved a better fate
The Sharks controlled 58% of expected goals (3.29 to 2.33) and still lost — the process was there, the finish wasn't.
Change nothing structurally — this loss was variance, not process.
WARNINGSJS
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.64 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Warning signs
WARNINGSJS
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.74 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGSJS
Deserved a better fate
The Sharks controlled 58% of expected goals (3.29 to 2.33) and still lost — the process was there, the finish wasn't.
Change nothing structurally — this loss was variance, not process.
WARNINGSJS
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.64 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Positive trends
STRENGTHSJS
Dangerous off the rush
0 goals on 30 rush shots worth 2.72 xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB+avg 78▲ IMPROVING
DefenseC+avg 47▲ IMPROVING
TransitionA-avg 67▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsFavg 68▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingC+avg 90▼ DECLINING
DisciplineCavg 73→ FLAT
LuckFavg 85▼ DECLINING
SJS latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
ELITE
Load index
90/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 4th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
45,891
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
17
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
19
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
3,619 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d49
2d13
3+d8
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
18 games with more rest than the opponent · 23 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,147 travel miles
Oct 31 – Nov 9
6 games in 9 days with 3,197 travel miles
Dec 3 – Dec 11
6 games in 13 days with 5,651 travel miles
Oct 3 – Oct 15
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Change nothing structurally — this loss was variance, not process.
Deserved a better fatecoachgm - 03
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach