Scouting desk · breakouts & market gaps
2025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
The Value Board
Two lists: tomorrow's stars and today's bargains. The first ranks every under-23 player by how likely he is to take a leap next season. The second finds players who help their team far more than their point totals suggest — the ones the market underpays attention to. Read both as scouting leads, not a cap sheet.
How to read this
Act I is a breakout board: for every under-23 skater we blend how good he already is, how fast his chance creation is growing year-over-year, and what the trained development model projects next — that's the . It's built to spot players becoming good before the goal totals announce it.
Act II hunts bargains without contract data — because we don't have any. Instead we compare each player's on-ice impact against his (the counting stats and spotlight the market actually pays for) and flag the biggest , weighted by an estimated . When both bars are long, everyone already knows; when the top bar runs far past the bottom one, that's the blind spot. Treat every number here as a scouting lead, not a cap sheet.
- IMP
- on-ice impact, as a 0–100 percentile of the league
- MKT
- market visibility — counting stats, minutes, spotlight
- GAP
- IMP minus MKT: how under-noticed the play is
- PHASE
- contract stage estimated from age and experience
Fine print · verbatim from the model
- breakoutScore = 100·(0.45·impact + 0.30·yoyGrowth + 0.25·modelUpside). impact = position-relative percentile of warProxy; yoyGrowth = xG/game vs MoneyPuck 2025-26, mapped 0.5+Δ% saturating at ±50% (rookies — no ≥20 GP prior season — reuse impact and are flagged); modelUpside = our development model's projected xG growth (player_seasons_v2, r2=0.83), clamped −30%..+50%, falls back to impact outside its training window. Age ≤ 23 from NHL API rosters (unknown age → excluded); gates ≥15 GP and ≥8 5v5 min/game.
- valueGap = impactPctile (position-relative percentile of warProxy) − marketVisibility (0.40·points/60 pctile + 0.25·goals pctile + 0.20·TOI/game pctile + 0.15·age premium, all-situations); valueScore = valueGap × contract-phase weight (ELC 1.5 / RFA 1.2 / UFA 1.0). Phase is an age/experience ESTIMATE. Gates: ≥15 GP, ≥8 5v5 min/game, impactPctile ≥ 60.
- No real contract data (PuckPedia/CapWages are paid). Contract phase is an age/experience estimate; market visibility proxies what contracts pay for.
Act I · Emerging — the U-23 board
25 ranked| # | Tm | Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | C · age 20 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG84model-est. |
| 2 | MTL | D · age 22 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG84model-est. |
| 3 | UTA | R · age 23 · 79 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; development model projects +57% further xG growth. | +0% | +57% | STRONG83model-est. |
| 4 | NYI | D · age 19 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG82model-est. |
| 5 | ANA | C · age 21 · 70 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG81model-est. |
| 6 | ANA | L · age 22 · 76 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG81model-est. |
| 7 | DAL | C · age 23 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; development model projects +38% further xG growth. | +0% | +38% | STRONG79model-est. |
| 8 | LAK | D · age 23 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG77model-est. |
| 9 | ANA | R · age 20 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG77model-est. |
| 10 | MTL | L · age 22 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; development model projects +86% further xG growth. | +0% | +86% | STRONG77model-est. |
| 11 | CHI | C · age 21 · 68 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG76model-est. |
| 12 | CAR | R · age 23 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG75model-est. |
| 13 | CBJ | D · age 22 · 75 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG75model-est. |
| 14 | SJS | C · age 21 · 69 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG73model-est. |
| 15 | CAR | C · age 23 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG71model-est. |
| 16 | PHI | R · age 21 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG71model-est. |
| 17 | STL | R · age 22 · 70 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE70model-est. |
| 18 | SJS | R · age 23 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE70model-est. |
| 19 | UTA | C · age 22 · 54 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE69model-est. |
| 20 | NJD | D · age 23 · 68 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE68model-est. |
| 21 | MTL | R · age 20 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE68model-est. |
| 22 | BUF | L · age 21 · 65 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE67model-est. |
| 23 | OTTstats: SJS | L · age 23 · 78 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE65model-est. |
| 24 | TOR | L · age 23 · 79 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE64model-est. |
| 25 | BUFstats: ANA | D · age 23 · 76 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE64model-est. |
Act II · Value picks — the market gap
25 flagged| # | Tm | Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYI | Adam PelechD · age 32 · +1.10Strong on-ice impact (72nd percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 72nd percentile impact, but market visibility of only 35 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+37 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED37model-est. |
| 2 | UTA | Nate SchmidtD · age 35 · +1.48Strong on-ice impact (80th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 80th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 45 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+35 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED35model-est. |
| 3 | PITstats: VGK | Kaedan KorczakD · age 25 · +0.87Middle-of-the-pack on-ice impact (65th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 65th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 38 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+27 | RFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED33model-est. |
| 4 | CHIstats: UTA | Ian ColeD · age 37 · +1.18Strong on-ice impact (73rd percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 73rd percentile impact, but market visibility of only 43 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+29 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED29model-est. |
| 5 | STL | Colton ParaykoD · age 33 · +1.03Middle-of-the-pack on-ice impact (69th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 69th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 39 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+29 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED29model-est. |
| 6 | STL | Tyler TuckerD · age 26 · +0.94Middle-of-the-pack on-ice impact (67th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 67th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 43 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | RFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED29model-est. |
| 7 | OTT | Jordan SpenceD · age 25 · +2.37Elite on-ice impact (90th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 90th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 66 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | RFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED29model-est. |
| 8 | TBL | J.J. MoserD · age 26 · +1.94Strong on-ice impact (86th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 86th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 62 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | RFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED29model-est. |
| 9 | COL | Josh MansonD · age 34 · +1.80Strong on-ice impact (85th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 85th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 56 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+29 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED29model-est. |
| 10 | ANA | Ian MooreD · age 24 · +0.80Middle-of-the-pack on-ice impact (63rd percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 63rd percentile impact, but market visibility of only 39 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | RFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED29model-est. |
| 11 | COL | Sam MalinskiD · age 28 · +2.66Elite on-ice impact (93rd percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 93rd percentile impact, but market visibility of only 65 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+28 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED28model-est. |
| 12 | TORstats: PHI | Emil AndraeD · age 24 · +0.71Middle-of-the-pack on-ice impact (61st percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 61st percentile impact, but market visibility of only 37 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+23 | RFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED28model-est. |
| 13 | WPG | Dylan DeMeloD · age 33 · +0.89Middle-of-the-pack on-ice impact (66th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 66th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 38 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+28 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED28model-est. |
| 14 | DAL | Esa LindellD · age 32 · +1.97Strong on-ice impact (87th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 87th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 60 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+28 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED28model-est. |
| 15 | FLA | Gustav ForslingD · age 30 · +1.32Strong on-ice impact (76th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 76th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 49 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+27 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED27model-est. |
| 16 | EDM | Mattias EkholmD · age 36 · +2.42Elite on-ice impact (92nd percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 92nd percentile impact, but market visibility of only 66 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+25 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED25model-est. |
| 17 | LAK | Drew DoughtyD · age 36 · +1.38Strong on-ice impact (77th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 77th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 52 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+25 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED25model-est. |
| 18 | CAR | Sean WalkerD · age 31 · +2.06Strong on-ice impact (88th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 88th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 63 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+25 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED25model-est. |
| 19 | MIN | Jonas BrodinD · age 33 · +1.15Strong on-ice impact (72nd percentile) the box score keeps quiet — badly underpriced by the market. | 72nd percentile impact, but market visibility of only 47 — badly underpriced by the market | BADLY UNDERPRICED+25 | UFA (est.) | BADLY UNDERPRICED25model-est. |
| 20 | COL | Devon ToewsD · age 32 · +1.34Strong on-ice impact (76th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 76th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 51 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+25 | UFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED25model-est. |
| 21 | UTA | John MarinoD · age 29 · +1.70Strong on-ice impact (83rd percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 83rd percentile impact, but market visibility of only 59 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+25 | UFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED25model-est. |
| 22 | CBJ | Damon SeversonD · age 32 · +2.14Strong on-ice impact (90th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 90th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 65 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | UFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED24model-est. |
| 23 | COL | Brock NelsonC · age 34 · +4.01Elite on-ice impact (97th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 97th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 73 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | UFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED24model-est. |
| 24 | VGK | Noah HanifinD · age 29 · +1.45Strong on-ice impact (79th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 79th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 55 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | UFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED24model-est. |
| 25 | SJS | Dmitry OrlovD · age 35 · +1.52Strong on-ice impact (81st percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 81st percentile impact, but market visibility of only 57 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | UFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED24model-est. |
Act III · The team lens
Value in the abstract is half the job — the Trade Board crosses this same value model with each club's biggest roster need and ranks the best value fits per team.
Open the Trade Board* WAR is a model-estimated proxy from on-ice impact, not official WAR. Contract phases are age/experience estimates — every "(est.)" means exactly that. Source: MoneyPuck aggregates + NHL API rosters via the analytics sidecar.