The Value Board
Two lists: tomorrow's stars and today's bargains. The first ranks every under-23 player by how likely he is to take a leap next season. The second finds players who help their team far more than their point totals suggest — the ones the market underpays attention to. Read both as scouting leads, not a cap sheet.
How to read this
Act I is a breakout board: for every under-23 skater we blend how good he already is, how fast his chance creation is growing year-over-year, and what the trained development model projects next — that's the . It's built to spot players becoming good before the goal totals announce it.
Act II hunts bargains without contract data — because we don't have any. Instead we compare each player's on-ice impact against his (the counting stats and spotlight the market actually pays for) and flag the biggest , weighted by an estimated . When both bars are long, everyone already knows; when the top bar runs far past the bottom one, that's the blind spot. Treat every number here as a scouting lead, not a cap sheet.
- IMP
- on-ice impact, as a 0–100 percentile of the league
- MKT
- market visibility — counting stats, minutes, spotlight
- GAP
- IMP minus MKT: how under-noticed the play is
- PHASE
- contract stage estimated from age and experience
- breakoutScore = 100·(0.45·impact + 0.30·yoyGrowth + 0.25·modelUpside). impact = position-relative percentile of warProxy; yoyGrowth = xG/game vs MoneyPuck 2025-26, mapped 0.5+Δ% saturating at ±50% (rookies — no ≥20 GP prior season — reuse impact and are flagged); modelUpside = our development model's projected xG growth (player_seasons_v2, r2=0.83), clamped −30%..+50%, falls back to impact outside its training window. Age ≤ 23 from NHL API rosters (unknown age → excluded); gates ≥15 GP and ≥8 5v5 min/game.
- valueGap = impactPctile (position-relative percentile of warProxy) − marketVisibility (0.40·points/60 pctile + 0.25·goals pctile + 0.20·TOI/game pctile + 0.15·age premium, all-situations); valueScore = valueGap × contract-phase weight (ELC 1.5 / RFA 1.2 / UFA 1.0). Phase is an age/experience ESTIMATE. Gates: ≥15 GP, ≥8 5v5 min/game, impactPctile ≥ 60.
- No real contract data (PuckPedia/CapWages are paid). Contract phase is an age/experience estimate; market visibility proxies what contracts pay for.
| # | Tm | Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | C · age 20 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG84model-est. |
| 2 | UTA | R · age 23 · 79 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; development model projects +57% further xG growth. | +0% | +57% | STRONG83model-est. |
| 3 | ANA | C · age 21 · 70 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG81model-est. |
| 4 | ANA | L · age 22 · 76 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG81model-est. |
| 5 | DAL | C · age 23 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; development model projects +38% further xG growth. | +0% | +38% | STRONG79model-est. |
| 6 | ANA | R · age 20 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG77model-est. |
| 7 | MTL | L · age 22 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; development model projects +86% further xG growth. | +0% | +86% | STRONG77model-est. |
| 8 | CHI | C · age 21 · 68 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG76model-est. |
| 9 | CAR | R · age 23 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG75model-est. |
| 10 | SJS | C · age 21 · 69 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG73model-est. |
| 11 | CAR | C · age 23 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG71model-est. |
| 12 | PHI | R · age 21 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | STRONG71model-est. |
| 13 | STL | R · age 22 · 70 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE70model-est. |
| 14 | SJS | R · age 23 · 81 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE70model-est. |
| 15 | UTA | C · age 22 · 54 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE69model-est. |
| 16 | MTL | R · age 20 · 82 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE68model-est. |
| 17 | BUF | L · age 21 · 65 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE67model-est. |
| 18 | OTTstats: SJS | L · age 23 · 78 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE65model-est. |
| 19 | TOR | L · age 23 · 79 GPXG rate up 0% year over year; too new for the development model's training window. | +0% | — | AVERAGE64model-est. |
| # | Tm | Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COL | Brock NelsonC · age 34 · +4.01Elite on-ice impact (97th percentile) the box score keeps quiet — underpriced by the market. | 97th percentile impact, but market visibility of only 73 — underpriced by the market | UNDERPRICED+24 | UFA (est.) | UNDERPRICED24model-est. |
Value in the abstract is half the job — the Trade Board crosses this same value model with each club's biggest roster need and ranks the best value fits per team.
Open the Trade Board* WAR is a model-estimated proxy from on-ice impact, not official WAR. Contract phases are age/experience estimates — every "(est.)" means exactly that. Source: MoneyPuck aggregates + NHL API rosters via the analytics sidecar.