San Jose's 3.14-goal overperformance on expected goals kept this competitive; Anaheim's underlying dominance won it.

SJS generated only 34% of expected goals (2.86 to 5.55) and managed 23 shot attempts to Anaheim's 44. High-danger chances favored ANA 12–6. Yet San Jose scored six. They outperformed their xG by 3.14, meaning they converted at a rate that doesn't match their opportunities—elite finishers or fortunate bounces, but a gap that reveals the scoreboard understates how thoroughly Anaheim controlled play.

Anaheim built dominance through volume. They finished two goals ahead of their own 5.55 xG, but their shot-attempt and expected-goal advantage was so large that even outperforming their model only shrank the margin. P. Mrazek gave up 3.14 more goals than expected—a stark underperformance that exposed Anaheim's true goaltending deficit despite the win.

Y. Askarov was nearly invincible on high-danger chances, stopping 92% of 12 shots from close range. San Jose was clinical on their limited HD attempts: 3 of 6 converted (50%). They added 5 goals off the rush on 23 chances and created just 3 rebound opportunities, scoring 1. Anaheim generated 10 rebound opportunities and scored 3 goals from rebounds—a decisive edge in secondary chances.

Leo Carlsson's wrist shot from the high slot at 0:46 in overtime closed it. By then, Anaheim's dominance across shot suppression, expected goals, and high-danger chances had become inevitable.

The model projects a 2.7-2.6 game with San Jose at 48% win probability — this is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Anaheim owns the underlying play. The Ducks are generating 52.0% of expected goals and controlling 52.0% of Corsi at 5v5, a consistent territorial advantage. But their season PDO of 0.981 tells a different story: they've been converting at a below-average rate, which suggests positive regression is due.

San Jose's PDO sits at 0.998, nearly neutral, a sign their results have tracked closer to their underlying performance. That stability, combined with the Ducks' expected upside, is why this matchup projects so tight despite Anaheim's edge in shot quality and volume.

Watch Beckett Sennecke for the Ducks. He's operating at 1.03 xG/60 with 20 goals and 19 assists, including 8 high-danger chances. His 13.5% shooting rate is elevated but grounded — there's real offensive talent generating that output. Cutter Gauthier has posted 25 goals on 0.99 xG/60, but only 2 of those came from high-danger chances, which suggests he's outperforming his underlying shot quality.

For San Jose, Pavol Regenda presents a puzzle: 1.10 xG/60 — the highest on their roster — yet only 5 goals and 1 assist. That gap signals either due regression or consistent misfortune. Igor Chernyshov is a dual threat: 0.91 xG/60 with 6 goals and 8 assists makes him a play-driver.

This is genuinely a toss-up. Anaheim's territorial advantage gives them the edge in a vacuum, but their PDO creates just enough room for the Sharks to steal this if special teams or goaltending breaks their way.