Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater
← Sat, Oct 11 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at SEA

Kraken edge the Golden Knights in overtime

Final / OTSat, Oct 11
VGKVegas Golden Knights1SEASeattle Kraken2
The verdict · coin flip

The Kraken won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

VGK 1 · SEA 2
◆ By the ModelJun 16, 2:36 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

VGK fired 27 shots to Seattle's 22, an advantage that usually decides games. Instead, the Kraken's execution and J. Daccord's 0.963 SV% produced a 2–1 overtime win.

The underlying numbers confirm the gap was razor-thin. Expected goals ran 3.42–3.63, a 49–51 split that reads like a coin flip. But Vegas recorded that 3.42 xG and scored once — 2.42 goals shy of expectation. Daccord was the inverse: he saved 2.42 goals above expectation and was perfect on 5 high-danger chances. That disparity, not volume, decided the night.

Vegas couldn't finish. They surrendered 2.42 goals' worth of chances (0-for-5 on high-danger work), while Daccord was 5-for-5 on the same metric. A. Hill (20 saves, 0.909 SV%) wasn't the bottleneck. The Kraken engineered their victory through relentless net-front pursuit: three rebounds created, one converted. Jared McCann's wrist shot from the doorstep at 4:56 of overtime was the game-winner.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Oct 11
VGK
1
SEA
2

Kraken edge the Golden Knights in overtime

Chances 3.4 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Kraken took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
3.42
SEA
3.63
49% of the chances51%

The board read VGK 1, SEA 2. The chances read VGK 3.4, SEA 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SEA
−1.6
goals above expected
SEA3.63 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK3.42 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Golden Knights left 2.4 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 07:58SEAM. BeniersPP0–1
  2. P3 04:11VGKP. DorofeyevPP1–1
  3. OT 04:56SEAJ. McCann1–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
46 shots
1
Final
90 shots
SEA
44 shots
2
VGK attackSEA attack
VGK SEA Goal
46
shots · 1 in
44
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKSEA
0 / 5
1.06 xG
High danger
1 / 4
1.05 xG
1 / 16
1.75 xG
Medium
1 / 19
1.98 xG
0 / 46
0.61 xG
Low
0 / 36
0.59 xG

The Golden Knights went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Daccord
+2.4
SEA · 26/27
A
A. Hill
+1.6
VGK · 20/22
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kraken edge the Golden Knights in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–9no goals
    2ndshots 10–4
    1. 07:58SEAM. Benierspower play(J. Eberle, V. Dunn)0–1
    3rdshots 7–2
    1. 04:11VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Stone, J. Eichel)1–1
    OTshots 3–7
    1. 04:56SEAJ. McCann(M. Beniers, V. Dunn)1–2

    score reads VGK–SEA

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.63
    SEA chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.6
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.019
    SEA puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    46.8%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.42Expected goals3.63
    SEA 51% of the chance quality
    27Shots on goal22
    5High-danger chances4
    67All attempts (Corsi)59
    Adjusted for score: VGK 54% · SEA 46%
    Faceoffs · SEA won39%off39%neu46%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK0 / 5 · 1.06 xG
    SEA1 / 4 · 1.05 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK1 / 16 · 1.75 xG
    SEA1 / 19 · 1.98 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK0 / 46 · 0.61 xG
    SEA0 / 36 · 0.59 xG

    VGK went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.06 expected goals — 1.1 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    1 G · 3.42 xG · -2.4
    SEA
    2 G · 3.63 xG · -1.6
    01234

    VGK finished -2.4 against expected, SEA -1.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    WRIST0/27
    TIP IN0/5
    SLAP1/5
    SNAP0/3
    BACKHAND0/5
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/21
    SEA
    WRIST1/23
    TIP IN0/7
    SLAP0/5
    SNAP0/5
    BACKHAND1/1
    DEFLECTED0/3
    OTHER0/15
    VGK
    SEA
    Off the rush
    1 G on 32
    2.88 xG
    1 G on 29
    2.53 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 2
    0.34 xG
    1 G on 3
    0.39 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 0-for-27, SEA 1-for-23.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Hill
    VGK · 20/22 · .909
    +1.6
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/41.1+0.1
    Medium1/192.0+1.0
    Low0/360.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Daccord
    SEA · 26/27 · .963
    +2.4
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.1+1.1
    Medium1/161.8+0.8
    Low0/460.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    90 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    46 shots
    1
    Final
    90 shots
    SEA
    44 shots
    2
    VGK attackSEA attack
    VGK SEA Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    V. Dunn
    #29 · D · —
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 24:02 on ice · +1
    M. Beniers
    #10 · C · —
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 17:54 on ice · +1
    J. Eichel
    #9 · C · —
    0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 21:28 on ice · -1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Oct 11
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelSep 22, 2:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a VGK 3.3–2.9 SEA game with the Golden Knights at 56% win probability. Vegas owns the underlying play: 54.5% xG% against Seattle's 45.7%, paired with 52.3% Corsi control. That territorial dominance is real and repeatable.

    The PDO spread tells the second story. Vegas runs 0.983—cold—while Seattle has climbed to 1.011, running hot. When both teams regress toward league mean, the Golden Knights gain ground and the Kraken lose it.

    The matchup pressure amplifies Vegas's edge. Seattle must neutralize Brandon Saad, who has scored 3 goals on a 4.1% shooting rate despite just 1 high-danger goal. Saad's 0.91 xG/60 suggests the goal volume is sustainable; his shooting rate does not. Vegas must manage Shane Wright, Seattle's 8-goal leader who drives 0.77 xG/60 and has converted 4 high-danger chances at a 10.4% clip. His hot hand is partly elite finishing, partly luck—Vegas will be counting on the latter to cool.

    The secondary scorers matter equally. Tomas Hertl anchors Vegas's depth at 0.88 xG/60 with 5 goals and 17 assists on 4.3% shooting. Berkly Catton provides Seattle's secondary punch at 0.68 xG/60 with 5 high-danger goals on 8.8% shooting. Neither team lacks scoring depth.

    One weakness cuts against Vegas: Rasmus Andersson's 2.49 xGA/60 defense has absorbed 68 high-danger shots against this season. Seattle will target those minutes. It's a real liability, though not enough to overturn the underlying play advantage.

    The verdict holds. Vegas drives play, PDO regression favors them, and their secondary threats match Seattle's. Seattle has a path—Wright's hot hand and Andersson's weakness—but it runs narrow.

    Players to Watch

    VGK

    • Brandon Saad: 0.91 xG/60, 3G 6A, 1 HD goal, 4.1% shooting
    • Tomas Hertl: 0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 1 HD goal, 4.3% shooting

    SEA

    • Shane Wright: 0.77 xG/60, 8G 10A, 4 HD goals, 10.4% shooting
    • Berkly Catton: 0.68 xG/60, 6G 8A, 5 HD goals, 8.8% shooting

    Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 56%
    56%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    56%
    44%
    VGK50SEA

    VGK by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 3.3–2.9 SEA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →SEA
    54.5%45.7%
    52.3%46.0%
    3.262.78
    2.713.29
    3.222.73
    2.953.13
    0.9831.011

    VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · No games yet
    VGK
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    SEA
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.011
    SEA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    TACTICALSEA

    Shutdown Assignment: Kraken

    Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Saad (3G, 0.91 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Saad (3G, 0.91 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    TACTICALVGK

    Shutdown Assignment: Golden Knights

    Key matchup: Neutralize Shane Wright (8G, 0.77 xG/60, 4 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Shane Wright (8G, 0.77 xG/60, 4 HD goals)

    WARNINGVGK

    Exploitable minutes: Rasmus Andersson

    Rasmus Andersson is on ice for 2.49 xGA/60 and 68 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Rasmus Andersson's shifts with the top line.

    WARNINGSEA

    Exploitable minutes: Chandler Stephenson

    Chandler Stephenson is on ice for 3.05 xGA/60 and 52 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Chandler Stephenson's shifts with the top line.

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    SEA
    Shane Wright8G 10A
    0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
    Berkly Catton6G 8A
    0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page