The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The expected goals said close to even—Dallas 3.62, Washington 3.22—but the Stars won. Goaltending decided it.
Oettinger was perfect: 24 saves on 24 shots, a +3.22 versus expected. Thompson was nearly perfect: 18 saves on 19, a +2.62. The difference was that single goal Tyler Seguin scored at 00:43 of the second period from a sharp angle.
Both teams wasted their chances. Dallas generated the sharper looks—0.077 expected goals per shot versus Washington's 0.053—but scored just once on six high-danger chances. Washington had five high-danger chances and scored zero. By the metrics that mattered (expected goals, shot quality, rebounding opportunities), this game was even. The goalies made it lopsided.
Dallas held 44% of shot attempts (19 on goal versus 24) yet stayed competitive in expected goals. That's the asymmetry: fewer shot attempts, better shot quality. Washington threw more pucks at Oettinger but produced lower-percentage looks, then couldn't finish the few dangerous ones they had.
Thompson was particularly stingy on high-danger chances, stopping all six. Oettinger simply didn't need to. He faced clean looks and turned them into nothing. One goal was all it took in a game where expected scoring suggested each team should have put away two or three.
