Motion-blurred skater in a Buffalo Sabres sweater

Breakdown · WSH at BUF

Sabres edge the Capitals in a shootout

Final / OTSat, Nov 1

WSHWashington Capitals3 BUFBuffalo Sabres4

The verdict · coin flip

The Sabres won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

WSH 3 · BUF 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:34 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Buffalo won 4-3 in a shootout despite holding just 41% of shot attempts (24-34). Expected goals split 3.26–3.13 in their favor—a 51-49 edge that suggested a near coin flip. The win reflects efficiency, not luck.

The Sabres generated far more dangerous chances: 0.062 expected goals per shot versus Washington's 0.047. High-danger chances favored Washington (5-4), yet Buffalo's converted looks mattered more. Three goals on 32 rush attempts versus Washington's four rebound opportunities and one goal—quality over volume.

U. Luukkonen's 0.912 save percentage (31/34) outpaced C. Lindgren's 0.875 (21/24). Bowen Byram's wrist shot from the slot in the shootout decided the rest.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Nov 1

WSH

BUF

Sabres edge the Capitals in a shootout

Chances 3.1 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Sabres took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

WSH

3.13

BUF

3.26

49% of the chances51%

The board read WSH 3, BUF 4. The chances read WSH 3.1, BUF 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BUF

+0.7

goals above expected

BUF3.26 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

WSH3.13 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 01:07WSHD. Strome1–0
P1 02:15WSHA. Protas2–0
P1 02:30BUFT. Thompson2–1
P1 10:02BUFA. Tuch2–2
P1 18:45BUFI. Rosen2–3
P2 19:17WSHS. Milano3–3
SO 00:00BUFB. ByramPP3–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WSH

55 shots

Final

100 shots

BUF

45 shots

WSH BUF GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WSHBUF

1 / 5

1.19 xG

High danger

0 / 4

0.89 xG

1 / 11

1.11 xG

Medium

3 / 14

1.69 xG

1 / 50

0.83 xG

Low

0 / 35

0.69 xG

High-danger looks: WSH 1 of 5, BUF 0 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Lindgren

+0.3

WSH · 21/24

U. Luukkonen

+0.1

BUF · 31/34

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Sabres edge the Capitals in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–10

01:07WSHD. Strome(R. Leonard)1–0
02:15WSHA. Protas(C. McMichael, T. Wilson)2–0
02:30BUFT. Thompson(J. Zucker, J. Greenway)2–1
10:02BUFA. Tuch(J. Doan, O. Power)2–2
18:45BUFI. Rosen(J. Quinn, C. Timmins)2–3

2ndshots 15–7

19:17WSHS. Milano(M. Roy, M. Fehérváry)3–3

3rdshots 5–6no goals

OTshots 5–1no goals

00:00BUFB. Byrampower play3–3

score reads WSH–BUF

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.26

BUF chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.7

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.011

BUF puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

44.5%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.13Expected goals3.26

BUF 51% of the chance quality

34Shots on goal24

5High-danger chances4

66All attempts (Corsi)53

Adjusted for score: WSH 56% · BUF 44%

Faceoffs · BUF won57%off31%neu53%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WSH1 / 5 · 1.19 xG

BUF0 / 4 · 0.89 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WSH1 / 11 · 1.11 xG

BUF3 / 14 · 1.69 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WSH1 / 50 · 0.83 xG

BUF0 / 35 · 0.69 xG

BUF went 3-for-14 from medium danger on 1.69 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WSH

3 G · 3.13 xG · -0.1

BUF

4 G · 3.26 xG · +0.7

012345

WSH finished -0.1 against expected, BUF +0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WSH

WRIST0/27

SNAP2/6

SLAP0/7

TIP IN1/4

BACKHAND0/4

DEFLECTED0/2

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/16

BUF

WRIST2/23

SNAP1/8

SLAP0/3

TIP IN0/3

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/13

WSH

BUF

Off the rush

1 G on 28

1.90 xG

3 G on 32

2.68 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 4

0.60 xG

0 G on 1

0.24 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 0-for-27, BUF 2-for-23. BUF scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Lindgren

WSH · 21/24 · .875

+0.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium3/141.7-1.3

Low0/350.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

U. Luukkonen

BUF · 31/34 · .912

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.2+0.2

Medium1/111.1+0.1

Low1/500.8-0.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

100 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WSH

55 shots

Final

100 shots

BUF

45 shots

WSH BUF GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, BUF right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

D. Strome

#17 · C · WSH

1 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 22:13 on ice · +1

A. Tuch

#89 · R · BUF

1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 20:14 on ice

O. Power

#25 · D · BUF

0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 19:54 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Nov 1

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:24 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6–2.7 goal game with Buffalo at 52% win probability. Pick 'em.

Both teams own identical 5v5 metrics: 50.0% expected goals, 49.0% Corsi. Neither is driving play. The heat is the story. Washington and Buffalo both sit at 1.018 and 1.020 PDO respectively. Regression awaits, and the team that cools first will likely lose.

L. Thompson faces a back-to-back. Expect either a backup start or a fatigued Game 2 performance.

Ovechkin (0.97 xG/60, 19 goals, 17 assists) anchors Washington's attack. His 13.8% shooting rate masks a structural gap: just 2 high-danger goals mean he's scoring off volume rather than repeatable chances. Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 9 assists) traces the same pattern—2 high-danger goals on 10.4% shooting signals he's riding luck.

Buffalo counters with Zucker, who generates 1.07 expected goals per 60 and has buried 6 high-danger chances. That's conversion. Doan (1.01 xG/60, 15 goals, 18 assists) completes the attack with an 11.5% shooting rate that suggests sustainability.

Both teams show defensive vulnerability. Neither has scored from a rebound (0%) or a high-danger chance (0%). Jack Quinn embodies Buffalo's exposure; Declan Chisholm mirrors it for Washington.

The model read this correctly: perfect symmetry yields no edge.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

BUF 52%

52%

BUF

Model favorite

48%

52%

WSH50BUF

BUF by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.7 BUF; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH← edge

edge →BUF

50.0%50.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.622.55

2.182.35

1.791.90

1.0181.020

BUF holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.020) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WSH

6-4-0

+5 GD · 1d rest

BUF

4-3-3

+2 GD · 2d rest

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.020

BUF PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

back-to-back.909 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BUF

Expected in goal

A. Lyon

2 days rest.818 last start

Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · +10.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

BUF

Jason Zucker14G 14A

1.07 xG/60 · 6 HD · 15.1% sh

Josh Doan15G 18A

1.01 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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