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← Sat, Nov 15 · the slate
Breakdown · NJD at WSH

Devils edge the Capitals in a shootout

Final / OTSat, Nov 15
NJDNew Jersey Devils3WSHWashington Capitals2
The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NJD 3 · WSH 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:13 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils won 3-2 in a shootout despite lower expected goals (3.66 to 4.03). The Capitals built the more efficient offense, but New Jersey held firm through regulation and won in the shootout on Simon Nemec's snap shot from the doorstep.

L. Thompson was extraordinary in defeat. The Capitals goalie faced 8 high-danger shots and saved all 8 at 100% SV, posting +2.03 saves above expected—nearly a full goal of outperformance. J. Allen, stopping 1.66 above expected, got the better fortune when Nemec finished.

The Devils went 0 for 8 from high-danger areas. Both teams wasted their crashing efforts—Capitals generated 4 rebound opportunities without converting, Devils generated 6. When chances moved outside the slot, both offenses stalled equally.

Shot attempts split exactly even at 31–31. Expected goals told a different story: Capitals 4.03, Devils 3.66. That edge didn't survive regulation, which finished 2–2. The shootout was all New Jersey.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Nov 15
NJD
3
WSH
2

Devils edge the Capitals in a shootout

Chances 4.0 – 3.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NJD
4.03
WSH
3.66
52% of the chances48%

The board read NJD 3, WSH 2. The chances read NJD 4.0, WSH 3.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
−1.0
goals above expected
NJD4.03 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH3.66 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals left 1.7 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 05:05NJDA. GritsyukPP1–0
  2. P1 17:46NJDL. Hughes2–0
  3. P3 01:00WSHC. McMichael2–1
  4. P3 08:29WSHA. Ovechkin2–2
  5. SO 00:00WSHD. StromePP2–2
  6. SO 00:00NJDJ. BrattPP2–2
  7. SO 00:00NJDS. NemecPP2–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NJD
52 shots
4
Final
102 shots
WSH
50 shots
3
NJD attackWSH attack
NJD WSH Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

52
shots · 4 in
50
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NJDWSH
0 / 8
1.90 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.65 xG
1 / 12
1.33 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.37 xG
1 / 46
0.81 xG
Low
0 / 50
0.64 xG

High-danger looks: NJD 0 of 8, WSH 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
L. Thompson
+2.0
WSH · 29/31
A
J. Allen
+1.7
NJD · 29/31
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Devils edge the Capitals in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 14–8
  1. 05:05NJDA. Gritsyukpower play(L. Hughes, P. Cotter)1–0
  2. 17:46NJDL. Hughes(B. Dillon, J. Bratt)2–0
2ndshots 7–10no goals
    3rdshots 5–11
    1. 01:00WSHC. McMichael(A. Ovechkin, J. Chychrun)2–1
    2. 08:29WSHA. Ovechkin(C. McMichael, D. Strome)2–2
    OTshots 5–2no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00WSHD. Stromepower play2–2
      2. 00:00NJDJ. Brattpower play2–2
      3. 00:00NJDS. Nemecpower play2–2

      score reads NJD–WSH

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      4.03
      NJD chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −1.0
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      1.001
      NJD puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      48.9%
      Shot attempts
      Under half — they were outshot
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      4.03Expected goals3.66
      NJD 52% of the chance quality
      31Shots on goal31
      8High-danger chances7
      66All attempts (Corsi)69
      Adjusted for score: NJD 45% · WSH 55%
      Faceoffs · WSH won50%off42%neu54%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      NJD0 / 8 · 1.90 xG
      WSH1 / 7 · 1.65 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      NJD1 / 12 · 1.33 xG
      WSH1 / 12 · 1.37 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      NJD1 / 46 · 0.81 xG
      WSH0 / 50 · 0.64 xG

      NJD went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.90 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      NJD
      3 G · 4.03 xG · -1.0
      WSH
      2 G · 3.66 xG · -1.7
      012345

      NJD finished -1.0 against expected, WSH -1.7.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      NJD
      SNAP1/39
      SLAP1/4
      BACKHAND0/3
      TIP IN0/0
      WRIST0/1
      WRAP AROUND0/1
      OTHER0/18
      WSH
      SNAP2/27
      SLAP0/9
      BACKHAND0/3
      TIP IN0/6
      WRIST0/1
      WRAP AROUND0/0
      OTHER0/23
      NJD
      WSH
      Off the rush
      1 G on 31
      2.39 xG
      1 G on 23
      2.43 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 6
      1.34 xG
      0 G on 4
      0.49 xG

      Snap shots carried the volume: NJD went 1-for-39, WSH 2-for-27.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Allen
      NJD · 29/31 · .935
      +1.7
      saved above expected
      A
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger1/71.6+0.7
      Medium1/121.4+0.4
      Low0/500.6+0.6

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      L. Thompson
      WSH · 29/31 · .935
      +2.0
      saved above expected
      A
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/81.9+1.9
      Medium1/121.3+0.3
      Low1/460.8-0.2

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      102 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      NJD
      52 shots
      4
      Final
      102 shots
      WSH
      50 shots
      3
      NJD attackWSH attack
      NJD WSH Goal

      Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

      Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      L. Hughes
      #43 · D · NJD
      1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 26:04 on ice · -1
      C. McMichael
      #24 · L · WSH
      1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 18:32 on ice · +1
      A. Ovechkin
      #8 · L · WSH
      1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 17:38 on ice · +1
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Sat, Nov 15
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:05 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The model projects a 2.5–2.7 goal game favoring Washington, which translates to 52% win probability for the Capitals. This is about as close to a coin flip as you'll find in the NHL.

      New Jersey arrives as the hotter team, going 6-3-1 over their last ten games. The underlying metrics, though, tell a murkier story. The teams match at 50.0% expected goals share at 5v5, but New Jersey's Corsi% of 51.0% suggests slightly better control than Washington's 49.0%. What really separates them is PDO—Washington is at 1.018, running hot and primed for regression, while New Jersey sits at 0.971, running cold and due for positive regression.

      Watch L. Thompson. Playing on back-to-back rest could mean a backup start or a tired starter, either way a potential vulnerability.

      The Devils' offense hinges on Timo Meier and Jack Hughes. Meier is generating 1.08 expected goals per 60 at 6.7% shooting, with 13 goals and 15 assists, including 3 high-danger chances. Hughes is slightly lower at 0.88 xG/60 but has converted at a higher 11.5% rate, reaching 18 goals and 17 assists on just 1 high-danger goal. Washington counters with Alex Ovechkin—0.97 xG/60, 19 goals, 17 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 13.8% shooting—and Anthony Beauvillier, running 0.89 xG/60 with 14 goals, 9 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and 10.4% shooting.

      Defensively, New Jersey's Johnathan Kovacevic figures as a weak link. Washington's Declan Chisholm carries similar exposure.

      This is a true coin flip where one team's regression and the other's regression-due status make the matchup genuinely unpredictable—exactly the kind of game where a tired goaltender could be the difference.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      WSH 53%
      53%
      WSH
      Model favorite
      47%
      53%
      NJD50WSH

      WSH by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NJD 2.5–2.7 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      NJD← edge
      edge →WSH
      50.0%50.0%
      51.0%49.0%
      2.452.62
      2.502.62
      1.662.18
      2.231.79
      0.9711.018

      WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      NJD
      6-3-1
      -2 GD · 2d rest
      WSH
      3-6-1
      -4 GD · 1d rest
      0.971
      NJD PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      1.018
      WSH PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Regression watch
      • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
      • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
      Things to watch
      • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
      • The Devils are the hotter team by points pace (6-3-1 in their last 10).
      • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      NJD
      Expected in goal
      J. Markstrom
      2 days rest.850 last start
      Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      WSH
      Expected in goal
      L. Thompson
      back-to-back.815 last start
      Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
      Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      NJD
      Timo Meier13G 15A
      1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
      Jack Hughes18G 17A
      0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
      WSH
      Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
      0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
      Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
      0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page