Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · VGK at NYI

Islanders steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Final / OTTue, Dec 9

VGKVegas Golden Knights4 NYINew York Islanders5

The verdict · stolen

The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.90–2.60 and won anyway.

VGK 4 · NYI 5

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:55 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

New York won 5–4 in a shootout despite being dominated on expected goals, 2.60 to 4.90. The Islanders engineered this heist through goaltending and rush scoring — a win built on variance favoring goaltender efficiency.

Vegas controlled possession and shot quality. The Golden Knights averaged 0.079 xG per shot against the Islanders' 0.049. New York compensated by attacking in transition: four goals on 29 rush chances beat Vegas's two on 27.

Emil Heineman's wrist shot from the high slot in the shootout proved decisive.

Goaltending was the difference. I. Sorokin stopped 33 of 37 shots (0.892 SV%, +0.90 vs expected), surpassing his workload. C. Hart (VGK) moved the opposite way: 23 saves on 27 shots (0.852 SV%, −1.40 vs expected). Hart surrendered 1.4 more goals than expected.

The underlying counts confirmed Vegas's edge: 37 shot attempts to New York's 27. High-danger chances extended that gap to 9–3. New York created three rebound opportunities (converting none) while Vegas created eight (converting two).

B. Horvat (NYI) led scorers with two goals in 22:19. J. Eichel and M. Stone (VGK) each notched two assists in similar ice time (24:30 and 22:32, respectively).

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Dec 9

VGK

NYI

Islanders steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 4.9 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

4.90

NYI

2.60

65% of the chances35%

The board read VGK 4, NYI 5. The chances read VGK 4.9, NYI 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

+2.4

goals above expected

NYI2.60 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK4.90 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

The Islanders scored 2.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 12:02VGKN. Hanifin1–0
P1 16:01VGKM. Marner2–0
P1 19:33NYIB. Horvat2–1
P2 03:56NYIM. Gatcomb2–2
P2 13:30NYIS. Holmstrom2–3
P3 01:27VGKI. Barbashev3–3
P3 10:15NYIB. HorvatPP3–4

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

55 shots

Final

100 shots

NYI

45 shots

VGK NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKNYI

3 / 9

2.29 xG

High danger

1 / 3

0.71 xG

1 / 19

2.08 xG

Medium

2 / 12

1.17 xG

0 / 34

0.53 xG

Low

1 / 38

0.72 xG

High-danger looks: VGK 3 of 9, NYI 1 of 3.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

I. Sorokin

+0.9

NYI · 33/37

D-

C. Hart

−1.4

VGK · 23/27

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 12–13

12:02VGKN. Hanifin(J. Eichel, S. Theodore)1–0
16:01VGKM. Marner(K. Korczak, M. Stone)2–0
19:33NYIB. Horvat(R. Pulock, M. Schaefer)2–1

2ndshots 9–6

03:56NYIM. Gatcomb(C. Cizikas, K. MacLean)2–2
13:30NYIS. Holmstrom(C. Ritchie, A. Duclair)2–3

3rdshots 11–8

01:27VGKI. Barbashev(B. Bowman, J. Eichel)3–3
10:15NYIB. Horvatpower play(M. Barzal, M. Shabanov)3–4
19:46VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Marner, M. Stone)4–4

OTshots 5–0no goals

00:00NYIE. Heinemanpower play4–4

score reads VGK–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.60

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.011

NYI puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

46.1%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.90Expected goals2.60

VGK 65% of the chance quality

37Shots on goal27

9High-danger chances3

62All attempts (Corsi)53

Adjusted for score: VGK 54% · NYI 46%

Faceoffs · NYI won44%off52%neu58%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK3 / 9 · 2.29 xG

NYI1 / 3 · 0.71 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK1 / 19 · 2.08 xG

NYI2 / 12 · 1.17 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK0 / 34 · 0.53 xG

NYI1 / 38 · 0.72 xG

VGK went 1-for-19 from medium danger on 2.08 expected goals — 1.1 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

4 G · 4.90 xG · -0.9

NYI

5 G · 2.60 xG · +2.4

0123456

VGK finished -0.9 against expected, NYI +2.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

WRIST1/23

SNAP2/12

SLAP0/6

TIP IN0/5

BACKHAND0/2

WRAP AROUND0/1

POKE1/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/11

NYI

WRIST1/8

SNAP1/13

SLAP2/14

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND0/2

WRAP AROUND0/0

POKE0/0

BAT0/0

OTHER0/12

VGK

NYI

Off the rush

2 G on 27

3.03 xG

4 G on 29

2.00 xG

Off rebounds

2 G on 8

1.38 xG

0 G on 3

0.33 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 1-for-23, NYI 1-for-8. NYI scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Hart

VGK · 23/27 · .852

-1.4

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.7-0.3

Medium2/121.2-0.8

Low1/380.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Sorokin

NYI · 33/37 · .892

+0.9

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/92.3-0.7

Medium1/192.1+1.1

Low0/340.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

100 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

55 shots

Final

100 shots

NYI

45 shots

VGK NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Eichel

#9 · C · VGK

0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 24:30 on ice · +1

M. Stone

#61 · R · VGK

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 22:32 on ice · +2

B. Horvat

#14 · C · NYI

2 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 22:19 on ice · -2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Dec 9

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:38 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6-2.4 Vegas win with the Golden Knights at 53% win probability. That qualifies as a genuine coin flip—there's no clarity in the numbers.

Vegas owns the underlying play. The Golden Knights control 54.0% of expected goals at 5v5, compared to the Islanders' 48.0%. Possession metrics amplify the advantage: Vegas drives the Corsi at 52.0% versus New York's 49.0%. Territorial dominance usually compounds into goals, but the Knights are running ice-cold. Their 0.983 PDO lags well behind neutral; the Islanders' 0.993 sits closer to normal. That imbalance suggests Vegas is the side due for positive regression.

The Islanders' goaltending introduces a wildcard. C. Hart is on a back-to-back, which typically means either a backup enters or a tired starter gets the workload. Models can't price that uncertainty in.

Brandon Saad (0.91 xG/60, 3G 6A, 1 HD goal, 4.1% shooting) is marked inactive, removing a layer from Vegas' attack. That leaves Tomas Hertl as the primary engine—0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 1 HD goal, 4.3% shooting. For New York, Anders Lee anchors the offense (1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting), while Bo Horvat supplies volume (0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting). Horvat's 12.8% shooting rate is inflated; regression is waiting.

Defensively, gaps matter. Rasmus Andersson is Vegas' weak link. Alexander Romanov fills the same role for New York.

Players to Watch

Tomas Hertl (VGK): 0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 1 HD goal, 4.3% shooting
Anders Lee (NYI): 1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting
Bo Horvat (NYI): 0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting

Vegas holds the edge in underlying play and should benefit from PDO bounce. But goaltending uncertainty and New York's scoring depth—particularly Lee—narrow the margin. Vegas at a slim favorite.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 53%

53%

VGK

Model favorite

53%

47%

VGK50NYI

VGK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.6–2.4 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →NYI

54.0%48.0%

52.0%49.0%

2.522.48

2.112.69

2.121.78

2.101.94

0.9830.993

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 0.993) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

6-2-2

+1 GD · 1d rest

NYI

5-4-1

+2 GD · 2d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

C. Hart

back-to-back.917 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

D. Rittich

2 days rest.897 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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