The Ducks won 4-3 in a shootout despite losing the expected goals battle 6.73–2.91. Pittsburgh controlled 70% of the xG at 5v5, outshot Anaheim 47-29, and created more high-danger chances (13-5). The Penguins dictated the game. They lost anyway.

The dominance was a goaltending story. V. Husso (ANA) stopped 44 of 47 shots for a 0.936 save percentage, posting 3.73 goals above expected. A. Silovs (PIT) went 26–28 (0.929 SV%) and outperformed his xG by 0.91, but execution failed elsewhere. Pittsburgh underperformed its xG by 3.73 goals, wasting quality chances. Anaheim overperformed by 1.09, capitalizing on lower-percentage looks. What decided it: Husso's 92% SV% on 13 high-danger shots, and Anaheim's 2-of-5 finish (40%) on high-danger chances.

Leo Carlsson's backhander from the doorstep in the shootout proved decisive.

The models have already spoken: Anaheim and Pittsburgh are indistinguishable. The Penguins carry 51% win probability, with projections landing at 2.7 to 2.8 goals for each side. This is as close to a pick'em as modern analytics will give you.

The underlying numbers confirm it. Anaheim has generated 52.0% expected goals and 52.0% Corsi at five-on-five—marginal edges barely worth mentioning. Pittsburgh counters with 51.0% xG% and 50.0% Corsi%, a statistical dead heat. Where the teams diverge is puck luck: Anaheim's 0.981 PDO means they've been running cold, while Pittsburgh's 1.012 indicates they've benefited from bounces. Expect some regression in the Ducks' direction.

The goaltending situation adds an unknown. V. Husso is on a back-to-back; Pittsburgh may turn to a fresher arm instead of starting him.

Anaheim's attack is anchored by Beckett Sennecke and Cutter Gauthier. Sennecke generates 1.03 expected goals per 60 minutes, armed with 20 goals, 19 assists, and 8 high-danger chances at a 13.5% shooting percentage—elite finishing on legitimate opportunities. Gauthier operates at similar volume (0.99 xG/60) but with more finish: 25 goals and 16 assists, though his high-danger conversion sits at just 2. His 12.9% shooting percentage shows he's capitalizing on routine chances.

Pittsburgh's primary threat is Rickard Rakell (1.01 xG/60, 13 goals, 13 assists, 3 high-danger chances, 12.1% shooting). Filip Hallander would normally merit equal standing—he's posted 1.28 expected goals per 60—but he's undergoing further evaluation and testing after his conditioning loan recall and is likely out.

Defensively, both teams have vulnerabilities. Mason McTavish is Anaheim's weak link on the backline; Caleb Jones carries similar liabilities for Pittsburgh. Whichever team limits its opponent's high-danger looks—and executes when it matters—will break the tie.

The models agree: this is a coin flip. Recent form is your tiebreaker.