The Hurricanes earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
L. Thompson stole this one. The Hurricanes edged the Capitals 3-2 in a shootout despite commanding the underlying numbers — and Thompson's 37-save performance (0.949 SV%, +3.09 above expected) was the difference.
Carolina dominated the 5v5 play. They controlled 62% of expected goals (5.09–3.08), held shot attempts to 39% (25–39), and created the more dangerous chances (6 high-danger shots to Washington's 7). B. Bussi was solid in goal (23/25, 0.920 SV%, +1.08 above expected), but the Capitals' goalie was phenomenal — 100% on high-danger chances, a wall when the Hurricanes pressed hardest.
Where Carolina stumbled: they couldn't finish. 0 for 7 on high-danger looks. They also underperformed their underlying metrics (2.09 below xG), wasting the quality they created.
Washington, meanwhile, squeezed everything from their limited opportunities. Off the rush — where they found just 28 chances — they scored twice. Carolina had 36 rush attempts and also scored twice, a sign of how marginal Washington's efficiency was everywhere except between the pipes.
Seth Jarvis's snap shot from the doorstep decided it in the shootout, but Thompson nearly stole that too.