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Motion-blurred skater in a Minnesota Wild sweater
← Thu, Dec 18 · the slate
Breakdown · MIN at CBJ

Wild run the Blue Jackets off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalThu, Dec 18
MINMinnesota Wild5CBJColumbus Blue Jackets2
The verdict · earned

The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

MIN 5 · CBJ 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:56 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Blue Jackets dominated shot attempts—51% of the total (29-28 on goal)—yet Minnesota won 5-2. The gap between volume and efficiency explains the outcome.

Expected goals exposed the problem: Minnesota's 4.20 xG to Columbus's 2.57 created a 62–38 split that justified the final scoreline. The Blue Jackets' shot volume masked inferior execution; Minnesota's 0.071 xG per shot bested Columbus's 0.040 mark, signaling that Minnesota was hunting higher-quality looks.

This surfaced most sharply in high-danger territory. Minnesota converted 4 of 7 high-danger chances (57%), while Columbus registered only 2. Off-the-rush play proved telling: Minnesota scored 3 goals on 33 attempts, Columbus 2 on 27. Conversion rates in transition reveal which team dictates tempo.

Goaltending revealed the gap. J. Wallstedt (MIN) made 27 of 29 saves at 0.931 SV%, overperforming by 0.57 goals. J. Greaves (CBJ) made 23 of 26 saves at 0.885 SV%, overperforming by 1.20 goals.

Matt Boldy's backhander from the slot (third period, 18:46) crystallized Minnesota's control. By then, the underlying metrics had already decided the result: Columbus had generated volume without consequence.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 18
MIN
5
CBJ
2

Wild run the Blue Jackets off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.2 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Wild earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
MIN
4.20
CBJ
2.57
62% of the chances38%

The board read MIN 5, CBJ 2. The chances read MIN 4.2, CBJ 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MIN
+0.8
goals above expected
MIN4.20 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ2.57 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 15:20CBJZ. Werenski0–1
  2. P2 13:30MINR. HartmanPP1–1
  3. P2 16:15MINV. Tarasenko2–1
  4. P2 17:39CBJZ. Werenski2–2
  5. P3 11:50MINJ. Eriksson Ek3–2
  6. P3 18:08MINK. KaprizovEN4–2
  7. P3 18:46MINM. BoldyEN5–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MIN
45 shots
5
Final
87 shots
CBJ
42 shots
2
MIN attackCBJ attack
MIN CBJ Goal
45
shots · 5 in
42
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MINCBJ
4 / 7
2.35 xG
High danger
0 / 2
0.39 xG
1 / 13
1.25 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.29 xG
0 / 39
0.60 xG
Low
1 / 50
0.90 xG

The Wild buried 4 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Greaves
+1.2
CBJ · 23/26
B
J. Wallstedt
+0.6
MIN · 27/29
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Wild run the Blue Jackets off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–5
  1. 15:20CBJZ. Werenski(C. Coyle, C. Sillinger)0–1
2ndshots 8–14
  1. 13:30MINR. Hartmanpower play(K. Kaprizov, B. Faber)1–1
  2. 16:15MINV. Tarasenko(Y. Trenin, D. Yurov)2–1
  3. 17:39CBJZ. Werenski2–2
3rdshots 11–10
  1. 11:50MINJ. Eriksson Ek(Y. Trenin, M. Boldy)3–2
  2. 18:08MINK. Kaprizovempty net(M. Boldy, J. Eriksson Ek)4–2
  3. 18:46MINM. Boldyempty net(K. Kaprizov)5–2

score reads MIN–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.20
MIN chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.8
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.054
MIN puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
48.0%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.20Expected goals2.57
MIN 62% of the chance quality
28Shots on goal29
7High-danger chances2
59All attempts (Corsi)64
Adjusted for score: MIN 48% · CBJ 52%
Faceoffs · CBJ won72%off67%neu52%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
MIN4 / 7 · 2.35 xG
CBJ0 / 2 · 0.39 xG
Medium dangermid-range
MIN1 / 13 · 1.25 xG
CBJ1 / 12 · 1.29 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
MIN0 / 39 · 0.60 xG
CBJ1 / 50 · 0.90 xG

MIN went 4-for-7 from high danger on 2.35 expected goals — 1.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
MIN
5 G · 4.20 xG · +0.8
CBJ
2 G · 2.57 xG · -0.6
0123456

MIN finished +0.8 against expected, CBJ -0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
MIN
WRIST2/23
SNAP0/7
TIP IN2/7
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND1/2
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/14
CBJ
WRIST1/23
SNAP0/9
TIP IN0/3
SLAP1/3
BACKHAND0/2
DEFLECTED0/2
OTHER0/22
MIN
CBJ
Off the rush
3 G on 33
2.61 xG
2 G on 27
1.66 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 2
0.47 xG
0 G on 2
0.20 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MIN went 2-for-23, CBJ 1-for-23. MIN scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Wallstedt
MIN · 27/29 · .931
+0.6
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium1/121.3+0.3
Low1/500.9-0.1

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Greaves
CBJ · 23/26 · .885
+1.2
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger4/72.4-1.6
Medium1/131.3+0.3
Low0/390.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

87 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
MIN
45 shots
5
Final
87 shots
CBJ
42 shots
2
MIN attackCBJ attack
MIN CBJ Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
K. Kaprizov
#97 · L · MIN
1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 23:44 on ice · +1
M. Boldy
#12 · L · MIN
1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 21:25 on ice · +2
Z. Werenski
#8 · D · CBJ
2 G · 0 A · 8 SOG · 28:30 on ice
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Dec 18
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:55 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 53% win probability for the Blue Jackets, making this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. A 2.5-2.6 goal spread might suggest one team pulling away, but the underlying margins are razor-thin.

Minnesota arrives hotter on the win-loss sheet—7-2-1 in their last 10—but Columbus has the more troubling issue: a -8 goal differential over the same span. That gap hints at teams diverging from their underlying quality. Both carry identical 52.0% expected-goal percentages at even strength, suggesting this game's outcome turns on variance and execution, not possession dominance.

Where Columbus does edge out is in shot volume. The Blue Jackets' 51.0% Corsi percentage signals territorial tilt; the Wild manage 48.0%, meaning Columbus will spend stretches inside Minnesota's end. This shapes how the Wild need to defend—they can't rely on owning the puck.

Both J. Greaves and F. Gustavsson are on back-to-backs, which muddies goalie deployment. Expect either a backup start from one side or one starter playing on tired legs. This is a minor edge to the team with clearer backup options.

Minnesota's offense centers on Matt Boldy, though Robby Fabbri is likely out. Boldy's 22 goals come on only 0.89 expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength—a 13.7% shooting percentage that won't hold. He has 5 high-danger goals, suggesting he's earned some of that luck.

Columbus leans on Boone Jenner, whose 0.98 expected goals per 60 actually exceeds Boldy's. Yet Jenner has just 11 goals against 21 assists; his 9.6% shooting percentage signals underperformance, and regression will bring more goals. Mathieu Olivier rounds out the scoring at 0.89 xG/60, with 12 goals on a healthier 13.3% shooting clip.

The models see this as true flip-a-coin territory, and the evidence backs it. Minnesota has rhythm in their win column. Columbus has pushed harder possession-wise and profiles as one goaltending decision away from shifting this game's complexion. One back-to-back start determines more than any five-on-five stat.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 53%
53%
CBJ
Model favorite
47%
53%
MIN50CBJ

CBJ by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MIN 2.5–2.6 CBJ; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →CBJ
52.0%52.0%
48.0%51.0%
2.552.63
2.402.43
2.042.12
1.931.98
1.0071.003

CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.007 vs 1.003) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
7-2-1
+12 GD · 1d rest
CBJ
3-4-3
-8 GD · 1d rest
1.007
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Greaves is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • F. Gustavsson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Wild are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
  • The Blue Jackets are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
MIN
Expected in goal
F. Gustavsson
back-to-back1.000 last start
Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CBJ
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
back-to-back.889 last start
Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN
Matt Boldy22G 18A
0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
Robby Fabbri2G 3A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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