The Stars won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Ducks played Dallas even by the underlying numbers — shot attempts tied at 25 apiece, expected goals nearly identical at 2.88–2.93 — but the scoreboard told a different story. The Stars won 8-3 because they converted like the Ducks weren't in the building.
Dallas overperformed their xG by 5.07 goals, an enormous gap that suggests either elite execution or variance running hot. The numbers hint at both. The Stars generated higher-quality chances (0.064 xG per shot versus Anaheim's 0.045) and capitalized off the rush; eight goals on 24 rush attempts overwhelmed Anaheim's defense. They also scored twice from low-danger positions — the kind of luck that swings blowouts.
The Ducks' collapse came in goal. L. Dostal surrendered 3.2 goals more than expected in limited action, yanked after the first period. P. Mrazek wasn't much better, coughing up 1.89 above expected despite stopping 14 of 18. Both goaltenders faced higher-volume pressure than the shot total suggests, and neither could hold the door.
Anaheim's only bright spot was clinical efficiency in the high-danger area — they scored twice on five chances there, matching Dallas's 40% conversion rate in the same spots. That discipline didn't matter when the Stars were walking in tap-ins from the outside.
Mikael Granlund's snap from the doorstep early in the second set the trajectory, and the rest of the Dallas lineup finished the job.
The gap between underlying process and result was too wide to blame randomness alone. Dallas simply had more dangerous looks and finished them. When the Ducks couldn't keep their goaltenders upright, the rest became academic.
