The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.11–2.66 and won anyway.
The Rangers won 5-4 in a shootout, but the underlying numbers said the Flyers deserved better. Philadelphia finished with 3.11 expected goals to New York's 2.66, and their shot quality told the same story: 0.060 xG per attempt vs. 0.040. The Rangers' victory hinged on opportunism, not superiority.
That opportunism revealed itself in the margins. New York overperformed their xG by 2.34 goals; Philadelphia overperformed by just 0.89. Vincent Trocheck's wrist shot from the doorstep in the shootout delivered the difference.
Both goalies faltered. I. Shesterkin (28/32 saves, 0.875 SV%) allowed 0.89 more goals than expected. S. Ersson (23/27 saves, 0.852 SV%) allowed 1.34 more—a costly deficit when Philadelphia's precision deserved better execution.
The Flyers dominated in transition, converting 4 goals on 31 rush chances. New York matched them with 3 on 27 attempts, suggesting both teams thrived on speed. Philadelphia's power play was lethal: 2 goals on 10 shots (0.84 xG). They created 3 rebound chances after crashing the net effectively but converted none.
New York held just 46% of shot attempts and tied high-danger chances at 2-2. The scoreboard said Rangers; the advanced metrics whispered Flyers. In hockey, shootouts erase that whisper.
