The Blues stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.28–3.86 and won anyway.
Montreal had the better chances. St. Louis had J. Binnington — and that was the difference in a 2–0 game the underlying metrics suggested should have been close. The Canadiens finished with 4.28 expected goals to the Blues's 3.86, a 53–47 split that implied competitiveness. The scoreboard disagreed.
Binnington stopped all 26 shots and saved 4.28 goals above expected, a performance so pristine it inverted an entire game. When one goalie stands on his head, structure becomes irrelevant.
The Canadiens had their chances and failed to capitalize. J. Fowler kept Montreal in the game — 17 saves on 19 shots, +1.86 vs expected — but couldn't overcome his team's finishing. Montreal went 0 for 6 on high-danger chances and couldn't convert four rebound opportunities, a rare failure that usually doesn't repeat.
St. Louis's victory came from precision and timing. They shot at 0.101 expected goals per shot to Montreal's 0.066, a gap that reflects quality over volume. But their decisive edge was the rush — 2 goals on 24 attempts. That output looks modest until you remember Montreal's futility: 0 goals on six high-danger chances.
Robert Thomas's backhander from the slot in the second period made it 1–0, settling a game that would ultimately turn on the only thing that mattered: which team could finish.
