The Lightning won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The scoreboard says Tampa Bay dominated San Jose 7-3, but the underlying play suggested a toss-up. Expected goals were nearly split 4.17–4.33, meaning the Sharks generated nearly as much as the Lightning — the gap was just goaltending and execution.
A. Vasilevskiy made the difference. He stopped 19 of 22 shots (0.864 SV%) and overperformed his expected by 1.17 goals. The Sharks' goaltending tandem collapsed: Y. Askarov gave up 1.33 more than expected over limited work (7 saves on 10 shots, 0.700 SV%), and A. Nedeljkovic gave up 1.34 more than expected (12 saves on 16, 0.750 SV%).
San Jose created the better scoring chances. They won the high-danger count 10-6 and generated 5 rebound chances, converting one. But they got out-finished. Tampa Bay scored 2 goals from low-danger areas — spots the opposing goalie needs to stop — and was lethal on the rush with 6 goals on 27 chances. The Lightning's power play was surgical: 3 goals on 9 shots, an 0.80 expected-goal total that reflects sustained zone time and clean looks.
A. Vasilevskiy's brilliance and the Sharks' goaltending collapse tell the real story. San Jose was the better play; Tampa Bay was the better team on the night.