The Senators stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.62–3.24 and won anyway.
The Senators won 4–2, but the box score doesn't reflect how close the underlying play was. Winnipeg generated more danger and better quality chances yet lost anyway—the story of the evening belonged entirely to goaltending.
Expected goals leaned Winnipeg's way, 3.62 to 3.24, a 53–47 split that favored the Jets. Ottawa controlled 54% of shot attempts, finishing 27–23 on goal, but the real gap was in high-danger chances: Winnipeg created eight to Ottawa's three. Despite that possession advantage, Winnipeg scored twice. It shouldn't have been close.
L. Meriläinen (OTT) stole the game. He made 21 of 23 saves and saved 1.62 goals above expected. C. Hellebuyck (WPG) did the opposite, allowing 0.76 goals more than his xG suggested he should. That differential in net was the deciding factor.
Claude Giroux's wrist shot from a sharp angle at 15:28 of the third period marked the turn. It came when Winnipeg had already wasted its advantage in dangerous areas, illustrating the night's theme: Ottawa made what mattered, Winnipeg did not.
Winnipeg created four rebound opportunities, Ottawa three. The Senators converted their power-play chances at an unsustainable rate—2 goals on 12 shots (0.77 expected goals). That efficiency masked the underlying reality: the Jets were the better team for forty minutes, but Meriläinen's brilliance and Winnipeg's wasteful finishing decided it.
