Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · TOR at NYI

Islanders edge the Maple Leafs in overtime

Final / OTSat, Jan 3

TORToronto Maple Leafs3 NYINew York Islanders4

The verdict · stolen

The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.08–2.75 and won anyway.

TOR 3 · NYI 4

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:07 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Maple Leafs held the underlying edge but lost 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals split 2.75–3.08, a 47–53 percent split favoring Toronto. The Islanders overperformed their xG by 1.25 goals. J. Woll simultaneously underperformed, surrendering 1.2 more than expected.

The shot volume tilt went New York's way: 54 percent of shot attempts (25–21 on goal). High-danger chances stayed even at 3–3. The rush game differentiated both offenses: New York scored 3 goals on 33 rush chances; Toronto scored 2 on 23.

M. Schaefer's snap shot from the high slot at 04:11 of overtime ended it. Woll finished 21 of 25 at 0.840 SV%. D. Rittich posted 0.857 on 18 of 21 stops.

Three Stars

#13 M. Barzal (NYI) — 2A in 22:49
#34 A. Matthews (TOR) — 2G in 22:29
#48 M. Schaefer (NYI) — 2G in 22:11

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Jan 3

TOR

NYI

Islanders edge the Maple Leafs in overtime

Chances 3.1 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Islanders took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

TOR

3.08

NYI

2.75

53% of the chances47%

The board read TOR 3, NYI 4. The chances read TOR 3.1, NYI 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

+1.3

goals above expected

NYI2.75 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

TOR3.08 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 01:10NYIA. Pelech0–1
P2 09:30TORA. Matthews1–1
P2 17:19TORA. Matthews2–1
P3 11:10NYIM. Schaefer2–2
P3 12:12TORN. Robertson3–2
P3 17:15NYIE. Heineman3–3
OT 04:11NYIM. Schaefer3–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

TOR

39 shots

Final

84 shots

NYI

45 shots

TOR NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

TORNYI

0 / 3

0.74 xG

High danger

2 / 3

0.70 xG

3 / 15

1.78 xG

Medium

1 / 12

1.10 xG

0 / 36

0.55 xG

Low

1 / 43

0.95 xG

The Maple Leafs went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

D. Rittich

+0.1

NYI · 18/21

D-

J. Woll

−1.3

TOR · 21/25

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders edge the Maple Leafs in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–7no goals

2ndshots 11–6

01:10NYIA. Pelech(J. Drouin)0–1
09:30TORA. Matthews1–1
17:19TORA. Matthews(B. McMann, M. Domi)2–1

3rdshots 3–10

11:10NYIM. Schaefer(J. Drouin, J. Pageau)2–2
12:12TORN. Robertson(N. Roy)3–2
17:15NYIE. Heineman(M. Barzal, T. DeAngelo)3–3

OTshots 0–2

04:11NYIM. Schaefer(M. Barzal, E. Heineman)3–4

score reads TOR–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.75

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.3

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.013

NYI puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

51.8%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.08Expected goals2.75

TOR 53% of the chance quality

21Shots on goal25

3High-danger chances3

54All attempts (Corsi)58

Adjusted for score: TOR 48% · NYI 52%

Faceoffs · NYI won50%off43%neu38%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

TOR0 / 3 · 0.74 xG

NYI2 / 3 · 0.70 xG

Medium dangermid-range

TOR3 / 15 · 1.78 xG

NYI1 / 12 · 1.10 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

TOR0 / 36 · 0.55 xG

NYI1 / 43 · 0.95 xG

NYI went 2-for-3 from high danger on 0.70 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

TOR

3 G · 3.08 xG · -0.1

NYI

4 G · 2.75 xG · +1.3

012345

TOR finished -0.1 against expected, NYI +1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

TOR

SNAP2/25

WRIST1/2

BACKHAND0/6

TIP IN0/3

SLAP0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/15

NYI

SNAP2/8

WRIST2/23

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN0/6

SLAP0/3

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/13

TOR

NYI

Off the rush

2 G on 23

1.93 xG

3 G on 33

2.13 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.21 xG

0 G on 2

0.21 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: TOR went 2-for-25, NYI 2-for-8. NYI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Woll

TOR · 21/25 · .840

-1.3

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/30.7-1.3

Medium1/121.1+0.1

Low1/430.9-0.1

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich

NYI · 18/21 · .857

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/30.7+0.7

Medium3/151.8-1.2

Low0/360.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

84 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

TOR

39 shots

Final

84 shots

NYI

45 shots

TOR NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — TOR left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Barzal

#13 · C · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 22:49 on ice · +1

A. Matthews

#34 · C · TOR

2 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 22:29 on ice

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

2 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 22:11 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 3

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:06 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The model projects a 2.5–2.7 xG game with the Islanders at 54% win probability.

The Islanders will control play. Their 49.0% Corsi to Toronto's 45.0% means expect the Leafs defending their own end for stretches. Toronto's 46.0% xG% to New York's 48.0% hints at better chance quality when they attack, but shot volume favors the Islanders. Neither team's PDO (Toronto 1.002, New York 0.993) suggests unsustainable luck — the game will likely play close to expectation.

D. Hildeby on a back-to-back bears watching. A backup start or a tired starter becomes a potential edge for Toronto's offense.

The forwards matchup shapes everything. Auston Matthews (1.10 xG/60, 17 goals, 10.6% shooting) is Toronto's high-volume threat; John Tavares (0.91 xG/60, 15 goals, 24 assists, 12.4% shooting) adds further scoring depth. Anders Lee (1.20 xG/60, 9 goals, 6.4% shooting) generates the Islanders' best chances but hasn't converted at volume. Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60, 18 goals, 12.8% shooting) leads the Islanders in goals despite lower expected-goal generation than Lee.

Both teams sit at 0% for high-danger goals and 0% for rebound conversions — they don't score from scrambles or second chances.

Toronto's Bo Groulx and New York's Alexander Romanov represent each team's defensive vulnerability.

The Islanders have the edge. But in a game that hinges on possession versus efficiency, the gap is negligible.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 54%

54%

NYI

Model favorite

46%

54%

TOR50NYI

NYI by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score TOR 2.5–2.7 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

TOR← edge

edge →NYI

46.0%48.0%

45.0%49.0%

2.242.48

2.672.69

2.091.78

2.521.94

1.0020.993

NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 0.993) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

TOR

5-4-1

-3 GD · 1d rest

NYI

5-4-1

-4 GD · 2d rest

1.002

TOR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Islanders drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Islanders drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
D. Hildeby is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

TOR

Expected in goal

D. Hildeby

back-to-back.957 last start

Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

D. Rittich

2 days rest.643 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

TOR

Auston Matthews17G 13A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh

John Tavares15G 24A

0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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