The Blackhawks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.45–3.90 and won anyway.
Chicago won a game that didn't belong to them. The Capitals generated 3.90 expected goals to the Blackhawks' 3.45—a 53-47 split that suggested a coin flip—but fell 3-2 in a shootout after S. Knight (CHI) saved 1.9 goals above expectation.
The Capitals created the better chances. They held 51% of shot attempts (34–33) and led 6–5 in high-danger opportunities. Yet they converted zero of those six HD chances, while Chicago cashed 2 goals on 28 rush attempts. That inefficiency—wasting quality—cost them the game more than the underlying play did.
S. Knight was the difference. He stopped every high-danger shot he faced, finishing with a 0.941 SV%, the kind of outlier performance that erases advantages in process. L. Thompson (WSH) also played well, posting a 0.939 SV%, but faced a shootout where Nick Foligno buried from the slot.
The Capitals' rebound work (5 created, 2 converted) showed effort. Chicago's rebound game was less productive (3 created, 0 converted), a gap that would normally doom them. But at even strength and overtime, this was decided at the margins: shot volume was even, quality was split, both goalies played above the line. The shootout was noise.
- #17 D. Strome (WSH) — 1G in 21:12
- #28 A. Burakovsky (CHI) — 1A in 20:37
- #9 R. Leonard (WSH) — 1G in 20:21
