The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Andersen stopped 1.77 goals above expected for the Hurricanes, yet they lost 5-3—evidence that Colorado's control ran deeper than the scoreline suggests. Expected goals favored the Avalanche 5.77–4.13, a margin Carolina couldn't overcome despite their goaltender's brilliance. The Hurricanes generated just 8 high-danger chances to Colorado's 10 and held only 44% of shot attempts. Volume and quality deficits compounded into a 42-58% expected-goal split—a lead that only Andersen's excellence kept from looking like a blowout.
Colorado's rush attack was the pivot. They scored 5 goals on 32 rush attempts while the Hurricanes managed 3 on 28—a two-goal swing decided by transition execution alone. The Avalanche's power play doubled down on the advantage: 2 goals on 18 shots (1.95 xG), converting at a rate that made special teams the difference-maker when 5v5 had already separated them.
Scott Wedgewood's 1.13-above-expected performance kept Colorado's efficiency intact. But the larger story was Andersen's 1.77-above-expected night in a losing effort—a reminder of how thoroughly Colorado dominated even when facing elite goaltending.
Nathan MacKinnon's slot shot (P3, 19:42) proved decisive. MacKinnon finished 1–3 in 20:04; Cale Makar added 2 assists in 24:35, Martin Necas 2 assists in 22:44.