The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Both teams scored far more than the numbers suggested, but Nashville's luck outlasted Calgary's. The Predators outperformed their expected goals by 1.49; the Flames by 1.10—a disparity that decided the 4-3 result.
Nashville controlled the game throughout. They claimed 57% of expected goals (2.51–1.90) and held Calgary to 39% of shot attempts (23–36), yet the margin was one goal. The reason: both clubs finished from low-danger spots. Nashville scored three from such areas; Calgary two. Had each team converted only as their shots' quality suggested, this ends 2–1 at most.
On the rush, the efficiency split was narrow. Nashville converted 3 of 32 chances; Calgary 2 of 27. The volume advantage came from better sequence play elsewhere, which compressed into finishing opportunities. Goaltending couldn't contain it. J. Saros made 20 of 23 shots (0.870 SV%), while D. Wolf stopped 32 of 36 (0.889 SV%), yet both conceded more than their underlying models predicted—a sign the shot quality was higher than typical for the volume.
Nicolas Hague's slap shot from the point closed it at 19:31 of the third, cementing what the underlying metrics had already decided: Nashville's control and larger fortune made the outcome inevitable.