The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Washington's 7-4 demolition masks a much tighter game underneath. Expected goals split 4.33–3.89, barely favoring the Capitals—yet they won by three. The difference: conversion rates and goaltending variance that went entirely one direction.
The Capitals' quality translated. They generated 0.092 xG per shot compared to Anaheim's 0.047, turning fewer attempts into more dangerous chances (9 high-danger opportunities to the Ducks' 7). But finishing was the real separator. Washington scored three times from low-danger spots—Anaheim's goalie needs those. The Ducks, meanwhile, went 0 for 7 on high-danger chances. That won't repeat.
Goaltending amplified the variance. C. Lindgren stopped 41 of 45 for Washington (0.911 SV%). P. Mrazek (ANA) saved just 19 of 24 (0.792 SV%), running 1.16 goals worse than expected despite facing far fewer chances. Washington overperformed their xG by 2.67 goals—elite finishing or favorable bounces, likely both.
Anaheim created quality where the shot totals didn't show it. They held just 39% of shot attempts (29–45 in attempts) but generated enough dangerous looks to stay close in the underlying metrics. The rush game tilted toward Washington (4 goals on 24 chances vs. Anaheim's 3 on 34), a cold reminder that volume doesn't guarantee conversion.