The Maple Leafs earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Florida generated 3.40 expected goals and scored one. Toronto generated 4.34 and scored four. The 2.40-goal gap between expected and actual for the Panthers makes the 4-1 scoreline look like a rout—it wasn't just dominant play, it was a collapse in finishing.
The Maple Leafs dominated the underlying metrics. They held 56% of 5-on-5 expected goals (4.34–3.40) while taking 42% of shot attempts (23–32). High-danger chances favored Toronto 7–5, a margin that reflects sustained zone pressure rather than randomness.
Toronto was lethal on the rush, converting four goals on 27 rush attempts. Florida created six rebound opportunities but converted zero, an aggressive net-front game that yielded nothing. The Panthers had higher-quality looks than their shot total suggested—they just couldn't finish them.
The goaltending split reveals how mismatched the game truly was. J. Woll (TOR) stopped 31 of 32 (0.969 SV%), saving 2.40 goals above expected and stealing the show. S. Bobrovsky (FLA) kept his team alive by saving 1.34 above expected (19 of 22, 0.864 SV%), but that wasn't enough to overcome Florida's offensive inconsistency.
Bobby McMann's backhander from the high slot at 19:52 of the third period served as the turning point. Toronto's depth scoring was clean—the Maple Leafs didn't need star-caliber performances to overwhelm a Panthers team that couldn't capitalize on its chances.
