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Breakdown · DAL at WSH

Stars run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalWed, Jan 7
DALDallas Stars4WSHWashington Capitals1
The verdict · earned

The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

DAL 4 · WSH 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:40 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas won 4-1 with a dominance that xG confirmed: the Stars controlled 73% of expected goals at 5v5, 5.84 to 2.14. Washington's 40% shot attempts came from low-danger looks—their 0.046 xG per shot versus Dallas's 0.088 told the real story.

The chance quality gap was massive. On high-danger chances, Dallas led 13-1. The Stars were especially lethal in transition, scoring 2 goals on 32 rush attempts and generating 6 rebound opportunities to keep pressure on the Capitals.

Goaltending didn't bridge the gap. L. Thompson saved 2.84 goals above expected, but that wasn't enough to overcome the underlying disadvantage. C. DeSmith saved 1.14 goals above expected, and Dallas—despite underperforming their xG by 1.84—still had more than enough.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 7
DAL
4
WSH
1

Stars run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 5.8 – 2.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Stars earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
DAL
5.84
WSH
2.14
73% of the chances27%

The board read DAL 4, WSH 1. The chances read DAL 5.8, WSH 2.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
−1.8
goals above expected
DAL5.84 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH2.14 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:06DALR. FaksaSH1–0
  2. P2 02:37DALS. Steel2–0
  3. P3 13:31DALW. Johnston3–0
  4. P3 17:41WSHA. OvechkinPP3–1
  5. P3 19:41DALR. HintzEN4–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DAL
47 shots
4
Final
83 shots
WSH
36 shots
1
DAL attackWSH attack
DAL WSH Goal
47
shots · 4 in
36
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DALWSH
4 / 13
3.63 xG
High danger
0 / 1
0.24 xG
0 / 17
1.83 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.30 xG
0 / 36
0.38 xG
Low
0 / 34
0.60 xG

The Stars buried 4 of 13 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
L. Thompson
+2.8
WSH · 32/35
B+
C. DeSmith
+1.1
DAL · 23/24
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Stars run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–6
  1. 03:06DALR. Faksashorthanded(E. Lindell)1–0
2ndshots 10–5
  1. 02:37DALS. Steel(T. Harley, M. Duchene)2–0
3rdshots 16–13
  1. 13:31DALW. Johnston(S. Steel)3–0
  2. 17:41WSHA. Ovechkinpower play(J. Carlson, J. Chychrun)3–1
  3. 19:41DALR. Hintzempty net4–1

score reads DAL–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
5.84
DAL chances
Goals their shots were worth
−1.8
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.039
DAL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
58.4%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.84Expected goals2.14
DAL 73% of the chance quality
36Shots on goal24
13High-danger chances1
66All attempts (Corsi)47
Adjusted for score: DAL 52% · WSH 48%
Faceoffs · WSH won55%off62%neu46%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
DAL4 / 13 · 3.63 xG
WSH0 / 1 · 0.24 xG
Medium dangermid-range
DAL0 / 17 · 1.83 xG
WSH1 / 12 · 1.30 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
DAL0 / 36 · 0.38 xG
WSH0 / 34 · 0.60 xG

DAL went 0-for-17 from medium danger on 1.83 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
DAL
4 G · 5.84 xG · -1.8
WSH
1 G · 2.14 xG · -1.1
01234567

DAL finished -1.8 against expected, WSH -1.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
DAL
SNAP2/23
TIP IN1/7
WRIST1/6
SLAP0/5
BACKHAND0/5
BAT0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/19
WSH
SNAP1/18
TIP IN0/6
WRIST0/5
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/2
BAT0/0
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/11
DAL
WSH
Off the rush
2 G on 32
3.56 xG
0 G on 25
1.56 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 6
0.94 xG
0 G on 0
0.00 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: DAL went 2-for-23, WSH 1-for-18. DAL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
C. DeSmith
DAL · 23/24 · .958
+1.1
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/10.2+0.2
Medium1/121.3+0.3
Low0/340.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson
WSH · 32/35 · .914
+2.8
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger4/133.6-0.4
Medium0/171.8+1.8
Low0/360.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
DAL
47 shots
4
Final
83 shots
WSH
36 shots
1
DAL attackWSH attack
DAL WSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
S. Steel
#18 · C · DAL
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 18:16 on ice · +1
J. Carlson
#74 · D · WSH
0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 27:37 on ice · -2
E. Lindell
#23 · D · DAL
0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 26:49 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Jan 7
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:38 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.6 goal Dallas win, but that's almost a footnote: Washington sits at 51% win probability. This is about as even as hockey modeling gets.

The underlying matchup is genuinely balanced. Dallas owns 51.0% xG at 5v5, but Washington's 49.0% Corsi% means the Capitals are generating more shot volume. Both teams lean on efficiency rather than volume—Robertson's 12.4% shooting and Ovechkin's 13.8% suggest unsustainable conversion rates.

The regression risk cuts both ways. Dallas's PDO of 1.024 and Washington's 1.018 are both running hot, meaning both teams should expect some cooling. For a game this tight, that could be decisive.

Jason Robertson anchors the Stars' scoring with 25 goals and an xG/60 of 0.96, backed by Michael Bunting's quieter role—8 goals at a healthier 7.6% shooting rate. On the Washington side, Alex Ovechkin (19 goals, 0.97 xG/60) is nearly identical to Robertson in underlying production, both generating elite high-danger looks. Anthony Beauvillier (14 goals, 10.4% shooting) provides secondary scoring with a more sustainable rate than Ovechkin's 13.8%.

Both teams show identical tactical weaknesses: zero high-danger-goal rate and zero rebound-goal rate, which reads as either exceptional goaltending or an absence of crash-net urgency. Dallas's Tyler Myers and Washington's Declan Chisholm are defensive weak links, though in a game where shot quality matters far more than volume, that may not surface.

The Capitals' marginal win-probability edge reflects their Corsi advantage—they're the more possession-heavy team. But Dallas owns the expected-goals edge and superior conversion rate, however unsustainable. One team leaves this game frustrated that underlying play didn't translate; the other gets lucky that it did. The model says it's a coin flip, and the numbers agree.

Three Stars

  • Jason Robertson, DAL
  • Alex Ovechkin, WSH
  • Anthony Beauvillier, WSH
What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 51%
51%
WSH
Model favorite
49%
51%
DAL50WSH

WSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DAL 2.5–2.6 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →WSH
51.0%50.0%
47.0%49.0%
2.362.62
2.292.62
2.072.18
1.681.79
1.0241.018

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.024 vs 1.018) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
DAL
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
WSH
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
1.024
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL
Jason Robertson25G 21A
0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
Michael Bunting8G 14A
0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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