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Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater
← Fri, Jan 23 · the slate
Breakdown · WSH at CGY

Capitals run the Flames off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalFri, Jan 23
WSHWashington Capitals3CGYCalgary Flames1
The verdict · earned

The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WSH 3 · CGY 1
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:19 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington's goaltender L. Thompson outperformed his expected goals line, but Calgary's D. Cooley overperformed his by even more — and still lost. The Capitals beat the Flames 3-1, backed by 72% of expected goals at 5v5.

The real gap was quality, not volume. Calgary took 26 shot attempts to Washington's 38, generating just 2.62 expected goals — the looks were there, but they weren't dangerous. The Capitals rang up 6.80 xG at a much higher rate per attempt (0.087 xG/shot vs 0.039). That's where the win came from.

L. Thompson (WSH) stopped 25 of 26 shots with a 0.962 SV%, saving 1.62 goals above expected. D. Cooley (CGY) was spectacular, posting a 0.946 SV% and saving 4.80 goals above expected — yet his team managed one goal. The high-danger chances went 11–2 Washington's way. Calgary created three rebound opportunities and converted zero; Washington had 11 chances with one goal.

Alex Ovechkin's wrist shot from the wing in the third period (19:07) exemplified Washington's clinical finishing. The Capitals took fewer shots but made them count.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 23
WSH
3
CGY
1

Capitals run the Flames off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 6.8 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Capitals earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
6.80
CGY
2.62
72% of the chances28%

The board read WSH 3, CGY 1. The chances read WSH 6.8, CGY 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
−3.8
goals above expected
WSH6.80 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
CGY2.62 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Flames left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:09CGYM. FrostPP0–1
  2. P2 06:33WSHH. Lapierre1–1
  3. P3 07:35WSHA. Protas2–1
  4. P3 19:07WSHA. OvechkinEN3–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
59 shots
3
Final
101 shots
CGY
42 shots
1
WSH attackCGY attack
WSH CGY Goal
59
shots · 3 in
42
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHCGY
3 / 11
3.91 xG
High danger
0 / 2
0.38 xG
0 / 20
2.08 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.44 xG
0 / 47
0.82 xG
Low
0 / 53
0.79 xG

The Capitals buried 3 of 11 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
D. Cooley
+4.8
CGY · 35/37
A
L. Thompson
+1.6
WSH · 25/26
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals run the Flames off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–16
  1. 06:09CGYM. Frostpower play(C. Zary)0–1
2ndshots 17–4
  1. 06:33WSHH. Lapierre(J. Carlson, M. Fehérváry)1–1
3rdshots 13–6
  1. 07:35WSHA. Protas(T. Wilson, J. Sourdif)2–1
  2. 19:07WSHA. Ovechkinempty net(D. Strome, M. Fehérváry)3–1

score reads WSH–CGY

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
6.80
WSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
−3.8
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.024
WSH puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
53.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

6.80Expected goals2.62
WSH 72% of the chance quality
38Shots on goal26
11High-danger chances2
78All attempts (Corsi)67
Adjusted for score: WSH 54% · CGY 46%
Faceoffs · CGY won44%off64%neu33%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
WSH3 / 11 · 3.91 xG
CGY0 / 2 · 0.38 xG
Medium dangermid-range
WSH0 / 20 · 2.08 xG
CGY1 / 12 · 1.44 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
WSH0 / 47 · 0.82 xG
CGY0 / 53 · 0.79 xG

WSH went 0-for-20 from medium danger on 2.08 expected goals — 2.1 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
WSH
3 G · 6.80 xG · -3.8
CGY
1 G · 2.62 xG · -1.6
012345678

WSH finished -3.8 against expected, CGY -1.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
WSH
WRIST3/36
TIP IN0/7
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/3
SNAP0/6
BAT0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
CRADLE0/1
OTHER0/19
CGY
WRIST1/23
TIP IN0/6
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND0/4
SNAP0/1
BAT0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED0/0
CRADLE0/0
OTHER0/25
WSH
CGY
Off the rush
1 G on 34
2.99 xG
1 G on 27
1.48 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 11
2.67 xG
0 G on 3
0.44 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 3-for-36, CGY 1-for-23.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
L. Thompson
WSH · 25/26 · .962
+1.6
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium1/121.4+0.4
Low0/530.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Cooley
CGY · 35/37 · .946
+4.8
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/113.9+0.9
Medium0/202.1+2.1
Low0/470.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

101 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
WSH
59 shots
3
Final
101 shots
CGY
42 shots
1
WSH attackCGY attack
WSH CGY Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, CGY right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Fehérváry
#42 · D · WSH
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 18:59 on ice · +2
J. Carlson
#74 · D · WSH
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 20:28 on ice · +1
A. Protas
#21 · L · WSH
1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 19:12 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Jan 23
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:17 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects 2.6 goals for Washington, 2.6 for Calgary, and assigns the Capitals exactly 50% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as projections get.

Both teams enter struggling. Washington is -5 in goal differential over their last 10 games; Calgary is -12. The Capitals own the underlying play—50.0% 5v5 expected goals versus Calgary's 47.0%—which suggests they'll win their share of tight matchups. Corsi rate (49.0% for both) indicates even possession, so the edge in shot quality belongs to Washington.

The regression watch is the real story. Calgary's PDO of 0.985 means the Flames are running cold; positive variance is coming. Washington's PDO of 1.018 signals the opposite—they're benefiting from unsustainable luck. Over time, shooting luck normalizes, which mathematically favors Calgary.

Both D. Wolf and L. Thompson face back-to-backs, so monitor for a backup appearance or a starter running on empty. Goaltender freshness becomes a real differentiator in tight games.

Offensively, Washington leans on Alex Ovechkin—19 goals, 0.97 expected goals per 60, 2 high-danger chances, 13.8% shooting rate—and Anthony Beauvillier mirrors the secondary load (14 goals, 0.89 xG/60, 2 high-danger chances, 10.4% shooting). Calgary counters with Blake Coleman (16 goals, 0.89 xG/60, 2 high-danger chances, 11.4% shooting) and Matt Coronato (10 goals, 0.80 xG/60, 16 assists, 6.6% shooting). Coronato's secondary scoring role—16 assists despite modest shooting volume—suggests depth even when primary options aren't generating shots.

Defensively, Declan Chisholm represents Washington's weak link; Matt Coronato carries similar burden for Calgary. In a game this tight, those vulnerabilities matter.

Washington projects narrowly ahead because the model favors their underlying play and regression math suggests luck turns their way. But Calgary's cold PDO and balanced scoring depth—Coleman matches Ovechkin's threat level—leave genuine uncertainty. This is a game where 50% means pick a color and move on.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 51%
51%
WSH
Model favorite
51%
49%
WSH50CGY

WSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.6 CGY; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
WSH← edge
edge →CGY
50.0%47.0%
49.0%49.0%
2.622.36
2.622.66
2.181.76
1.792.15
1.0180.985

WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.985) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WSH
3-6-1
-5 GD · 1d rest
CGY
3-6-1
-12 GD · 1d rest
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.985
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
  • D. Wolf is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Flames are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Capitals are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
WSH
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
back-to-back.840 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CGY
Expected in goal
D. Wolf
back-to-back.840 last start
Backup Dustin Wolf · -1.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
CGY
Blake Coleman16G 12A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.4% sh
Matt Coronato10G 16A
0.80 xG/60 · 0 HD · 6.6% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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