Motion-blurred skater in a Ottawa Senators sweater

Breakdown · NYI at OTT

Senators run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalThu, Mar 19

NYINew York Islanders2 OTTOttawa Senators3

The verdict · earned

The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYI 2 · OTT 3

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:52 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Senators won 3-2, but that scoreline understates their dominance: 70% of 5v5 expected goals (4.93–2.12), 59% of shot attempts, and a 10–3 high-danger chance edge. Ottawa generated elite-level play and nearly squandered it.

They underperformed their xG by 1.93 goals. I. Sorokin (NYI) saved 1.93 goals above expected, including 90% on high-danger shots. That's the game: Ottawa's missed chances met Sorokin's elite saves.

The Islanders stayed competitive through transition. Two goals on 19 rush attempts is a conversion rate that normally ends seasons. But they lacked the volume to hang even. Ottawa crashed the net relentlessly—9 rebound opportunities generated, 2 converted—and produced far more dangerous looks. Their 0.085 xG per shot versus NYI's 0.047 showed the quality gap.

Brady Tkachuk's wrist shot from the doorstep (P3, 19:47) broke the game open.

J. Reimer (OTT) made 17 of 19 (0.895 SV%), a solid floor. I. Sorokin's 24 of 27 (0.889 SV%) looked average in rate but he saved 1.93 more goals than expected, keeping what could have been a three-goal loss to just one.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 19

NYI

OTT

Senators run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.1 – 4.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Senators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

2.12

OTT

4.93

30% of the chances70%

The board read NYI 2, OTT 3. The chances read NYI 2.1, OTT 4.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

OTT

−1.9

goals above expected

OTT4.93 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI2.12 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 04:45NYIM. Schaefer1–0
P2 10:27OTTS. PintoSH1–1
P3 02:02NYIB. Schenn2–1
P3 05:12OTTW. Foegele2–2
P3 19:47OTTB. Tkachuk2–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

28 shots

Final

75 shots

OTT

47 shots

NYI OTT GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYIOTT

0 / 3

0.68 xG

High danger

1 / 10

2.72 xG

1 / 11

1.21 xG

Medium

1 / 15

1.64 xG

1 / 31

0.22 xG

Low

1 / 33

0.57 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

I. Sorokin

+1.9

NYI · 24/27

J. Reimer

+0.1

OTT · 17/19

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Senators run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–7no goals

2ndshots 11–9

04:45NYIM. Schaefer(R. Pulock, B. Horvat)1–0
10:27OTTS. Pintoshorthanded(T. Kleven, N. Matinpalo)1–1

3rdshots 1–11

02:02NYIB. Schenn(S. Holmstrom, S. Mayfield)2–1
05:12OTTW. Foegele(F. Zetterlund, D. Gilbert)2–2
19:47OTTB. Tkachuk(J. Spence, D. Batherson)2–3

score reads NYI–OTT

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.93

OTT chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.9

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.007

OTT puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

56.3%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.12Expected goals4.93

OTT 70% of the chance quality

19Shots on goal27

3High-danger chances10

45All attempts (Corsi)58

Adjusted for score: NYI 43% · OTT 57%

Faceoffs · OTT won54%off56%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI0 / 3 · 0.68 xG

OTT1 / 10 · 2.72 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI1 / 11 · 1.21 xG

OTT1 / 15 · 1.64 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI1 / 31 · 0.22 xG

OTT1 / 33 · 0.57 xG

OTT went 1-for-10 from high danger on 2.72 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

2 G · 2.12 xG · -0.1

OTT

3 G · 4.93 xG · -1.9

0123456

NYI finished -0.1 against expected, OTT -1.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

WRIST0/14

SLAP1/4

SNAP0/5

TIP IN1/2

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/17

OTT

WRIST2/22

SLAP0/6

SNAP0/4

TIP IN0/7

BACKHAND1/4

DEFLECTED0/2

WRAP AROUND0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/11

NYI

OTT

Off the rush

2 G on 19

1.79 xG

1 G on 26

2.21 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.16 xG

2 G on 9

2.36 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 0-for-14, OTT 2-for-22. NYI scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 24/27 · .889

+1.9

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/102.7+1.7

Medium1/151.6+0.6

Low1/330.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Reimer

OTT · 17/19 · .895

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/30.7+0.7

Medium1/111.2+0.2

Low1/310.2-0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

75 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

28 shots

Final

75 shots

OTT

47 shots

NYI OTT GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, OTT right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 24:11 on ice · +2

B. Horvat

#14 · C · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:39 on ice · +1

T. Kleven

#43 · D · OTT

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:06 on ice · -1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Mar 19

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:12 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a NYI 2.3-2.8 OTT game with the Senators at 59% win probability. That lean rests on clear dominance in five-on-five play that favors territory and shot volume.

The Senators generate 56.0% of expected goals at 5v5 compared to the Islanders' 48.0%. They control possession at 53.0% Corsi% versus New York's 49.0%. Both teams carry identical 0.993 PDO—which means the edge isn't variance or luck, but shot quality and volume. Ottawa is simply creating better looks from better positions.

L. Ullmark, on the second half of a back-to-back, injects uncertainty into New York's net. Whether he starts or a backup gets the call, the Islanders face a goaltending variable that could matter if play tightens.

The offensive weapons tell different stories. Anders Lee (1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 6.4% shooting) drives through volume while Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 12.8% shooting) leans on efficiency—two approaches to generating offense. Ottawa counters with Brady Tkachuk (1.19 xG/60, 11G 20A, 7.5% shooting) and Dylan Cozens (1.00 xG/60, 13G 15A, 9.5% shooting), who similarly split their offensive identity between shot creation and execution.

On the back end, Alexander Romanov represents New York's defensive exposure while Nick Jensen fills that role for Ottawa. Neither team scores through high-danger or rebound chances, so this game belongs to whoever controls territory and shot volume—exactly where Ottawa has built its edge. The 59% win probability isn't about star names. It's about who dominates the underlying play.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 59%

59%

OTT

Model favorite

41%

59%

NYI50OTT

OTT by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score NYI 2.3–2.8 OTT; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →OTT

48.0%56.0%

49.0%53.0%

2.482.66

2.692.12

1.782.18

1.941.99

0.9930.993

OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.993) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

7-3-0

+1 GD · 2d rest

OTT

6-2-2

+10 GD · 1d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

OTT PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
L. Ullmark is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

2 days rest.963 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

OTT

Expected in goal

L. Ullmark

back-to-back.913 last start

Backup Linus Ullmark · -12.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

OTT

Brady Tkachuk11G 20A

1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh

Dylan Cozens13G 15A

1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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