The Red Wings earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Detroit's 3-1 victory masked a shot-attempt deficit: the Red Wings held just 28 shots to Montreal's 33 but controlled 56% of five-on-five expected goals (4.42–3.41).
The underlying advantage ran deeper. Detroit generated far more dangerous looks—0.069 expected goals per shot versus Montreal's 0.052—and converted three of seven high-danger chances. Montreal produced only four such opportunities and finished 0-for-4 in that zone. Detroit also thrived on the rush, converting twice on 22 attempts.
Montreal's goaltending couldn't hold back the tide. J. Dobes stopped 25 of 27 shots (0.926 save percentage) but still underperformed his expected outcome by 2.41 goals—he was asked to do too much against superior shot quality. Detroit's J. Gibson made 32 of 33 saves at 0.970, exceeding expectations by 2.41.
The turning point came in the third period when Andrew Copp's wrist shot from the slot found the back of the net at 19:43.
Both teams underperformed their expected-goal totals—Detroit by 1.42 goals, Montreal by 2.41—but the Canadiens' larger variance gap underscored their inability to punish Detroit's few mistakes.
