Sharks at Ducks: too close to call
The model's lean
ANA by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score SJS 1.2–1.3 ANA; 27% chance it's tied after 60.
Tale of the tape
ANA holds 3 of 3 process categories — and PDO (0.998 vs 0.981) says SJS has run hotter.
Shutdown Assignment: Ducks
Key matchup: Neutralize Pavol Regenda (5G, 1.10 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Key matchup: Neutralize Pavol Regenda (5G, 1.10 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Shutdown Assignment: Sharks
Key matchup: Neutralize Beckett Sennecke (20G, 1.03 xG/60, 8 HD goals)
Key matchup: Neutralize Beckett Sennecke (20G, 1.03 xG/60, 8 HD goals)
Pavol Regenda drives the Sharks offense
Pavol Regenda: 5G 1A, 1.10 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals.
Exploitable minutes: Igor Chernyshov
Igor Chernyshov is on ice for 2.80 xGA/60 and 22 high-danger shots against this season.
Hunt matchups against Igor Chernyshov's shifts with the top line.
The pregame model projects a 1.2–1.3 goals expected game, giving the Ducks 51% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Pavol Regenda drives the Sharks' offense: 5G 1A, 1.10 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals. Igor Chernyshov supports him at 0.91 xG/60 with 6G 8A and 1 high-danger goal. Anaheim's first task is neutralizing Regenda.
Anaheim counters with two scoring threats. Beckett Sennecke leads at 1.03 xG/60, 20G 19A, 8 high-danger goals—a high-volume, dangerous scorer. Cutter Gauthier follows at 0.99 xG/60, 25G 16A, 2 high-danger goals. Shutting down Sennecke is San Jose's first task.
The Ducks drive possession at 52.2% Corsi to the Sharks' 47.0%. That territorial edge is real: more shot attempts mean more time in the offensive zone. Expect the Ducks to own stretches of play.
Anaheim's luck is running cold. A PDO of 0.981 means the Ducks are underperforming their underlying shot quality and goaltending—regression to the mean favors them. The Sharks sit at 0.998, essentially neutral. If Anaheim's efficiency regresses upward, this game tilts in their favor.
The 5v5 picture comes from 2025-26 rates; the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.
Players to Watch
SJS
- Pavol Regenda — 1.10 xG/60, 5G 1A, 2 HD goals, 16.1% shooting
- Igor Chernyshov — 0.91 xG/60, 6G 8A, 1 HD goal, 15.0% shooting
ANA
- Beckett Sennecke — 1.03 xG/60, 20G 19A, 8 HD goals, 13.5% shooting
- Cutter Gauthier — 0.99 xG/60, 25G 16A, 2 HD goals, 12.9% shooting