WARNINGSEA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.03 xG (6 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Seattle Kraken
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Fri, Oct 302026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Krakenactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Fri, Oct 30): SEA 2 - 6 CGY — a loss to the Flames.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.03 xG (6 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Next opponent
Last game report card · SEA @ CGY · Fri, Oct 30
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionSEACGY
Offense
▸Basis
SEA Created 2.39 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.60 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.48 xG).
CGY Created 2.55 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.03 xG).
C
73
C
76
Defense
▸Basis
SEA Allowed 2.55 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.03 xG).
CGY Allowed 2.39 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.60 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.48 xG).
C
74
C+
77
Transition
▸Basis
SEA Rush shots 19–27, rush xG 1.48–2.03 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
CGY Rush shots 27–19, rush xG 2.03–1.48 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D
66
B
84
Special teams
▸Basis
SEA 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.27 PP xG.
CGY 2-for-2 on the power play (100%; league ≈21%) with 0.36 PP xG.
C
76
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
SEA -3.45 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.
CGY +0.39 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
F
41
C+
79
Discipline
▸Basis
SEA Took 3 penalties for 9 PIM vs 5 for 13 on the other side.
CGY Took 5 penalties for 13 PIM vs 3 for 9 on the other side.
B
85
D
65
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
SEA Finishing -0.39 goals vs xG plus -3.45 GSAx of save luck = -3.84 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
CGY Finishing +3.45 goals vs xG plus +0.39 GSAx of save luck = +3.84 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
44
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGSEA
P. Grubauer couldn't make the stop
P. Grubauer allowed 4 on 14 shots (0.714) — 2.68 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
STRENGTHSEA
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 19 rush shots worth 1.48 xG.
LUCKSEA
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.933 — the bounces went against them tonight.
STRENGTHSEA
Power play cashed in
1-for-4 on the power play (25%) on 0.27 PP xG.
Warning signs
WARNINGSEA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.03 xG (6 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGSEA
P. Grubauer couldn't make the stop
P. Grubauer allowed 4 on 14 shots (0.714) — 2.68 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
Positive trends
STRENGTHSEA
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 19 rush shots worth 1.48 xG.
STRENGTHSEA
Power play cashed in
1-for-4 on the power play (25%) on 0.27 PP xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseCavg 87▼ DECLINING
DefenseCavg 48▲ IMPROVING
TransitionDavg 68→ FLAT
Special teamsCavg 73→ FLAT
GoaltendingFavg 81▼ DECLINING
DisciplineBavg 81▲ IMPROVING
LuckFavg 78▼ DECLINING
SEA latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
ELITE
Load index
100/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 1st-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
50,229
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
20
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
22
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,484 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d51
2d12
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
16 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 46 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 3,485 travel miles
Jan 18 – Jan 26
6 games in 11 days with 4,807 travel miles
Dec 12 – Dec 22
6 games in 11 days with 4,661 travel miles
Feb 19 – Mar 1
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
P. Grubauer couldn't make the stopcoachgm