The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Sean Monahan – Conor Garland – Kent JohnsonTogether this unit controls play outright — 59% of expected goals, 15 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.96 min together 44 +15 → proj 5959.0%· obs.
- 02Kirill Marchenko – Dmitri Voronkov – Adam FantilliTogether this unit controls play outright — 58% of expected goals, 4 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.219 min together 54 +4 → proj 5858.0%· obs.
- 03Charlie Coyle – Mathieu Olivier – Cole SillingerTogether this unit tilts the ice — 53% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.418 min together 54 -1 → proj 5353.0%· obs.
- 04Boone Jenner – Miles Wood – Isac LundestrmTogether this unit plays about even — 48% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.64 min together 48 +0 → proj 4848.0%· obs.
- 01Damon Severson – Zach WerenskiTogether this unit controls play outright — 66% of expected goals, 30 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.393 min together 36 +30 → proj 6666.0%· obs.
- 02Ivan Provorov – Denton MateychukTogether this unit controls play outright — 66% of expected goals, 34 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.299 min together 32 +34 → proj 6666.0%· obs.
- 03Brendan Smith – Dante FabbroTogether this unit spends the night chasing — 45% of expected goals, 20 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.111 min together 25 +20 → proj 4545.0%· obs.