The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Mark Stone – Mitch Marner – Brett HowdenTogether this unit controls play outright — 68% of expected goals, 16 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.103 min together 52 +16 → proj 6868.0%· obs.
- 02Ivan Barbashev – Jack Eichel – Braeden BowmanTogether this unit controls play outright — 58% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.261 min together 56 +2 → proj 5858.0%· obs.
- 03Brandon Saad – Tomas Hertl – Pavel DorofeyevTogether this unit controls play outright — 56% of expected goals, 3 points WORSE than the talent predicts — worse together than apart.140 min together 59 -3 → proj 5656.0%· obs.
- 04Nic Dowd – Keegan Kolesar – Cole SmithTogether this unit tilts the ice — 54% of expected goals, 9 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.117 min together 45 +9 → proj 5454.0%· obs.
- 01Ben Hutton – Noah HanifinTogether this unit controls play outright — 62% of expected goals, 29 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.142 min together 33 +29 → proj 6262.0%· obs.
- 02Rasmus Andersson – Jeremy LauzonTogether this unit controls play outright — 58% of expected goals, 25 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.128 min together 33 +25 → proj 5858.0%· obs.
- 03Brayden McNabb – Shea TheodoreTogether this unit controls play outright — 56% of expected goals, 21 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.840 min together 35 +21 → proj 5656.0%· obs.