The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Tyler Toffoli – Collin Graf – Michael MisaTogether this unit controls play outright — 60% of expected goals, 11 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.67 min together 49 +11 → proj 6060.0%· obs.
- 02Barclay Goodrow – Adam Gaudette – Zack OstapchukTogether this unit tilts the ice — 52% of expected goals, 6 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.168 min together 46 +6 → proj 5252.0%· obs.
- 03Will Smith – Macklin Celebrini – Igor ChernyshovTogether this unit plays about even — 50% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.128 min together 50 0 → proj 5050.0%· obs.
- 04Alexander Wennberg – Philipp Kurashev – William EklundTogether this unit plays about even — 50% of expected goals, 10 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.85 min together 40 +10 → proj 5050.0%· obs.
- 01Dmitry Orlov – Shakir MukhamadullinTogether this unit controls play outright — 57% of expected goals, 30 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.108 min together 27 +30 → proj 5757.0%· obs.
- 02Vincent Desharnais – Sam DickinsonTogether this unit tilts the ice — 52% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.355 min together 28 +24 → proj 5252.0%· obs.
- 03John Klingberg – Mario FerraroTogether this unit spends the night chasing — 46% of expected goals, 20 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.237 min together 26 +20 → proj 4646.0%· obs.